Sport Picks
Match Events
18'
18'
Pohlmann O.
Assist: de Oliveira D.
32'
32'
Tomane
64'
64'
Sub
Perea O. In: Kiki
Out: Perea O.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga Portugal 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
30%
37%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AFS
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
37%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Rio Ave lately — more wins on the board than AFS.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- Regular Liga Portugal 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Rio Ave Clean Sheet 20%
AFS Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Rio Ave | AFS |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 10 | 5 |
| Draws | 6 | 11 |
| Losses | 12 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.36 | 1.04 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.57 | 1.46 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 17, 2026 Liga Portugal
Rio Ave vs AFS
2:2
Dec 6, 2025 Liga Portugal
AFS vs Rio Ave
1:2
Jul 23, 2025 Club Friendly
Rio Ave vs AFS
1:1
Feb 16, 2025 Liga Portugal
Rio Ave vs AFS
1:1
Sep 14, 2024 Liga Portugal
AFS vs Rio Ave
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Rio Ave Compare
Top Goalscorer Pohlmann O.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ntoi A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
AFS Compare
Top Goalscorer Tomane
1 Goals Assists Leader Pedro Lima
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Rio Ave 36 / 100
AFS 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Rio Ave AFS
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick AFS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Rio Ave's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Defensive concern: AFS conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.
Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.
Solid form: Rio Ave remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Rio Ave VS AFS
1.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Rio Ave
(Home) 15 Aug
Rio Ave
0 : 2 FC Porto
09 Aug
Gil Vicente
1 : 0 Rio Ave
01 Aug
Rio Ave
3 : 1 Tondela
23 Jul
Rio Ave
5 : 2 Nottingham 2
19 Jul
Rio Ave
2 : 2 Al Ahli SC
Page 1 of 6
15 Aug
Rio Ave
0 : 2 FC Porto
01 Aug
Rio Ave
3 : 1 Tondela
23 Jul
Rio Ave
5 : 2 Nottingham 2
19 Jul
Rio Ave
2 : 2 Al Ahli SC
11 Jul
Rio Ave
2 : 1 Arouca
Page 1 of 4
AFS
(Away) 17 Aug
FC Felgueiras
1 : 1 AFS
09 Aug
AFS
0 : 1 Sporting CP B
31 Jul
AFS
1 : 1 Trofense
29 Jul
AFS
3 : 0 SC Vianense
25 Jul
Pacos Ferreira
0 : 2 AFS
Page 1 of 6
17 Aug
FC Felgueiras
1 : 1 AFS
25 Jul
Pacos Ferreira
0 : 2 AFS
18 Jul
Moreirense
2 : 2 AFS
14 Jul
Maritimo
2 : 0 AFS
16 May
Moreirense
0 : 0 AFS
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 88 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 80 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 59 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 50 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | 42 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | 42 |
| 10 | Estoril | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | 36 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | 36 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela da Amadora | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | 30 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | 28 |
| 18 | AFS | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | 21 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
