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Rio Ave vs Tondela - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
47' Event
Blesa J.
54' Event
de Oliveira D.

AI Match Summary

Rio Ave in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Rio Ave.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Rio Ave
15%
Draws
58%
Tondela
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tondela

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Rio Ave average 1.32 goals a game right now, well clear of Tondela's 1.21.
  • Tondela are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Rio Ave have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Rio Ave Clean Sheet 10%
Tondela Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rio Ave Tondela
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 11
Draws 6 7
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.32 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Club Friendly
Rio Ave vs Tondela
3:1
Mar 9, 2026 Liga Portugal
Tondela vs Rio Ave
0:1
Oct 5, 2025 Liga Portugal
Rio Ave vs Tondela
3:0
Jan 12, 2022 Taça de Portugal
Rio Ave vs Tondela
0:1
Feb 9, 2021 Liga Portugal
Rio Ave vs Tondela
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rio Ave Compare

Top Goalscorer Blesa J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader de Oliveira D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Tondela Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rio Ave 10 / 100
Tondela 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rio Ave Tondela

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tondela Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rio Ave found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (28 games).

Tondela has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Rio Ave went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Rio Ave VS Tondela
1 Goals Scored 1.63
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Rio Ave

(Home)
17 Oct
Louletano
0 : 1
Rio Ave
11 Oct
Rio Ave
3 : 2
Nacional
19 Sept
Alverca
1 : 0
Rio Ave
14 Sept
Rio Ave
3 : 3
Estrela da Amadora
06 Sept
Santa Clara
4 : 0
Rio Ave
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Tondela

(Away)
18 Oct
Tondela
2 : 0
Alverca
10 Oct
Tondela
1 : 0
Torreense
19 Sept
Imortal
1 : 5
Tondela
12 Sept
Portimonense
0 : 2
Tondela
05 Sept
Tondela
3 : 0
FC Porto B
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