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Rio Branco ES vs CA Itapemirim

Brazil Brazil

Capixaba 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Arthur Sanches
34' Event
Rocha E.
42'
Jean

AI Match Summary

The Capixaba 2023 game between Rio Branco ES and CA Itapemirim finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Rio Branco ES.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Rio Branco ES
15%
Draws
0%
CA Itapemirim
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Rio Branco ES

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Rio Branco ES carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Rio Branco ES a 85% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Rio Branco ES have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Rio Branco ES Clean Sheet 68%
CA Itapemirim Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rio Branco ES CA Itapemirim
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 13 4
Draws 9 5
Losses 10 21
Goals Scored 1.38 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.19 2.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 2, 2023 Capixaba
Rio Branco ES vs CA Itapemirim
2:1
Jan 26, 2020 Capixaba
Rio Branco ES vs CA Itapemirim
3:2
Feb 12, 2019 Capixaba
CA Itapemirim vs Rio Branco ES
1:3
Mar 8, 2017 Capixaba
CA Itapemirim vs Rio Branco ES
2:0
Apr 10, 2016 Capixaba
CA Itapemirim vs Rio Branco ES
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rio Branco ES Compare

Top Goalscorer Arthur Sanches
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rocha E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

CA Itapemirim Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel Pereira
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rio Branco ES 95 / 100
CA Itapemirim 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rio Branco ES CA Itapemirim

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rio Branco ES Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CA Itapemirim has conceded goals in 90% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: CA Itapemirim has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Rio Branco ES scored in 72% of their last 32 outings.

Scoring Trends

Rio Branco ES VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Rio Branco ES

(Home)
27 Jun
Uberlandia
2 : 2
Rio Branco ES
21 Jun
Rio Branco ES
0 : 2
Uberlandia
14 Jun
Rio Branco ES
4 : 0
Porto-BA
06 Jun
Rio Branco ES
1 : 0
Serra
03 Jun
Audax Sao Mateus
0 : 4
Rio Branco ES
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CA Itapemirim

(Away)
11 Mar
CA Itapemirim
0 : 5
Vitoria ES
02 Mar
Rio Branco ES
2 : 1
CA Itapemirim
26 Feb
CA Itapemirim
0 : 5
Nova Venecia
15 Feb
Serra
2 : 0
CA Itapemirim
09 Feb
CA Itapemirim
0 : 2
Estrela do Norte
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria ES 9 6 1 2 20:8 19
2 Porto Vitoria 9 6 1 2 20:12 19
3 Real Noroeste 9 6 0 3 15:9 18
4 Nova Venecia 9 5 0 4 16:9 15
5 Rio Branco ES 9 5 0 4 11:12 15
6 Serra 9 4 3 2 15:11 15
7 Desportiva Ferroviaria 9 3 2 4 8:14 11
8 Estrela do Norte 9 3 1 5 9:11 10
9 Vilavelhense 9 2 2 5 12:16 8
10 CA Itapemirim 9 0 0 9 2:26 0
Promotion - Capixaba 2023 (Play Offs)