Sport Picks
Risca United vs Penybont Prediction & H2H Stats
Wales
FA Cup 2022/2023 
AI Match Summary
Penybont in this FA Cup 2022/2023 tie, finishing 1-5. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
21%
15%
64%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Penybont
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
64%
/ High Confidence
- Penybont have won more games recently than Risca United.
- Model gives Penybont a 64% chance of winning this.
- Penybont arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Penybont, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Penybont have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Risca United Clean Sheet 20%
Penybont Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Risca United | Penybont |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 12 |
| Draws | 9 | 7 |
| Losses | 13 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.28 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.87 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.97 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 8, 2022 FAW Welsh Cup
Risca United vs Penybont
1:5
Mar 4, 2017 Division 1
Penybont vs Risca United
5:1
Oct 21, 2016 Division 1
Risca United vs Penybont
1:3
Feb 6, 2016 Division 1
Penybont vs Risca United
1:2
Oct 24, 2015 Division 1
Risca United vs Penybont
2:4
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Risca United 10 / 100
Penybont 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Risca United Penybont
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Penybont Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.
Risca United's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Defensive concern: Penybont conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.
Risca United has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
- VS Penybont
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Risca United
(Home) 21 Sept
Cardiff Corries
4 : 1 Risca United
08 Oct
Risca United
1 : 5 Penybont
16 Sept
Risca United
4 : 2 Aberbargoed Buds
30 Apr
Afan Lido
2 : 1 Risca United
18 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
3 : 3 Risca United
Page 1 of 6
08 Oct
Risca United
1 : 5 Penybont
16 Sept
Risca United
4 : 2 Aberbargoed Buds
15 Apr
Risca United
1 : 1 Cwmbran Celtic
09 Apr
Risca United
1 : 1 Carmarthen Town
25 Mar
Risca United
0 : 1 Pontypridd United
Page 1 of 3
Penybont
(Away) 03 Oct
Connahs Q.
1 : 0 Penybont
26 Sept
Penybont
2 : 1 Airbus UK Broughton FC
18 Sept
Ammanford Town
1 : 5 Penybont
15 Sept
Penybont
3 : 2 Briton Ferry
11 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 1 Penybont
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Connahs Q.
1 : 0 Penybont
18 Sept
Ammanford Town
1 : 5 Penybont
11 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 1 Penybont
31 Aug
Cambrian United
2 : 2 Penybont
14 Aug
Haverfordwest
0 : 3 Penybont
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
CKSV 1
Aber Valley 5
TBD -
Barry Town -
Llandudno Amateurs 1
Llanrug 7
Llanidloes Town 0
Gresford 1
Felinheli 2
Glannau 1
Conwy Borough 3
Kinmel Bay 2
Risca United 4
Aberbargoed Buds 2
TBD -
Penybont -
Trearddur Bay 1
Penycae FC 5
TBD -
Guilsfield -
Abergavenny Town 2
Treharris Athletic 1
TBD -
Goytre Utd -
Afan Lido 0
Hakin United 1
TBD -
Taffs Well -
Llanfair United 1
Llanuwchllyn 2
TBD -
Holywell Town FC -
Cwmbran Celtic 1
Ammanford Town 0
TBD -
Llantwit Major -
Cefn Cribwr 1
Newport City 2
TBD -
Carmarthen Town -
Penydarren 4
Ynyshir Albions 0
TBD -
Pure Swansea -
Trethomas Bluebirds 6
Ton Pentre 0
TBD -
Haverfordwest -
Mochdre Sports 0
Chirk AAA FC 3
TBD -
TNS -
Llay Welfare 3
Flint Mountain 6
TBD -
Caernarfon -
Pencoed 6
Brecon Corinthians 2
TBD -
Aberystwyth -
Treowen 0
Cardiff Corries 6
TBD -
Newtown -
Abermule 2
Hawarden Rangers 3
TBD -
Bala -
Penrhyncoch 1
Caersws FC 2
TBD -
Flint Town -
Penparcau FC 1
Rhyl 3
TBD -
Ruthin Town -
Chepstow Town 1
Rockspur 0
TBD -
Pontypridd United -
Porthmadog 3
Mold Alexandra 4
TBD -
Holyhead -
Croesyceiliog FC 2
Ynysygerwn 1
TBD -
Briton Ferry -
Llangefni 1
Llandudno Albion 2
TBD -
Buckley -
Machynlleth 0
Prestatyn 3
TBD -
Llandudno FC -
Llansannan 1
Glantraeth FC 2
TBD -
Cefn Druids -
Canton 5
West End 1
Llanelli 4
Goytre AFC 0
Denbigh 6
Llanrwst United 1
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
Bow Street 6
Bangor 1876 5
TBD -
Colwyn Bay -
Baglan Dragons 1
Pontardawe 2
TBD -
Cambrian United -
Pill 4
Caldicot 0
TBD -
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
Talysarn Celts 0
Queens Park 1
TBD -
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
Aberfan 2
Porthcawl Town 0
Trefelin 5
Llandrindod 0
1/32-finals
Aber Valley 1
Barry Town 3
Llanrug 0
Gresford 3
Felinheli 1
Conwy Borough 4
Risca United 1
Penybont 5
Penycae FC 1
Guilsfield 4
Abergavenny Town 1
Goytre Utd 2
Hakin United 4
Taffs Well 1
Llanuwchllyn 0
Holywell Town FC 5
Cwmbran Celtic 3
Llantwit Major 2
Newport City 0
Carmarthen Town 2
Penydarren 2
Pure Swansea 1
Trethomas Bluebirds 2
Haverfordwest 1
Chirk AAA FC 1
TNS 2
Flint Mountain 0
Caernarfon 4
Pencoed 0
Aberystwyth 1
Cardiff Corries 1
Newtown 8
Hawarden Rangers 1
Bala 6
Caersws FC 0
Flint Town 1
Rhyl 0
Ruthin Town 2
Chepstow Town 1
Pontypridd United 2
Mold Alexandra 3
Holyhead 1
Croesyceiliog FC 0
Briton Ferry 5
Llandudno Albion 0
Buckley 3
Prestatyn 2
Llandudno FC 0
Glantraeth FC 0
Cefn Druids 5
Canton 1
Llanelli 2
Denbigh 1
Connahs Q. 5
Bow Street 1
Colwyn Bay 4
Pontardawe 1
Cambrian United 0
Pill 2
Cardiff Metropolitan University 1
Queens Park 0
Airbus UK Broughton FC 3
Aberfan 1
Trefelin 5
1/16-finals
Barry Town 0
Gresford 2
Conwy Borough 0
Penybont 3
Guilsfield 6
Goytre Utd 3
Hakin United 1
Holywell Town FC 5
Cwmbran Celtic 4
Carmarthen Town 3
Penydarren 1
Trethomas Bluebirds 0
TNS 2
Caernarfon 1
Aberystwyth 1
Newtown 3
Bala 2
Flint Town 0
Ruthin Town 3
Pontypridd United 4
Mold Alexandra 0
Briton Ferry 4
Buckley 2
Prestatyn 0
Cefn Druids 3
Llanelli 4
Connahs Q. 4
Colwyn Bay 0
Pontardawe 3
Pill 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 2
Trefelin 1
1/8-finals
Gresford 0
Penybont 2
Guilsfield 1
Holywell Town FC 2
Cwmbran Celtic 3
Penydarren 2
TNS 7
Newtown 0
Bala 2
Pontypridd United 1
Briton Ferry 3
Buckley 2
Llanelli 0
Connahs Q. 2
Pontardawe 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 2
Quarter-finals
Penybont 2
Holywell Town FC 1
Cwmbran Celtic 1
TNS 3
Bala 2
Briton Ferry 0
Connahs Q. 5
Airbus UK Broughton FC 0
Semi-finals
Penybont 0
TNS 2
Bala 3
Connahs Q. 2
Final
TNS 6
Bala 0
