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River Plate Montevideo vs Fenix Prediction & H2H Stats

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division Parque Federico Omar Saroldi, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Guerrero S.
81'
Segalerba G.

AI Match Summary

Fenix in this Segunda Division matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Fenix.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
River Plate Montevideo
30%
Draws
31%
Fenix
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: River Plate Montevideo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Fenix average 1.48 goals a game right now, well clear of River Plate Montevideo's 1.34.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Segunda Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
River Plate Montevideo Clean Sheet 21%
Fenix Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric River Plate Montevideo Fenix
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 10
Draws 8 10
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.34 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Segunda Division
River Plate Montevideo vs Fenix
0:1
Jun 6, 2026 Segunda Division
Fenix vs River Plate Montevideo
3:1
Sep 29, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
River Plate Montevideo vs Fenix
4:3
Jul 7, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Fenix vs River Plate Montevideo
1:0
Mar 16, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Fenix vs River Plate Montevideo
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

River Plate Montevideo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Fenix Compare

Top Goalscorer Guerrero S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

River Plate Montevideo 37 / 100
Fenix 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
River Plate Montevideo Fenix

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fenix Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

River Plate Montevideo found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Fenix let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: River Plate Montevideo remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

River Plate Montevideo VS Fenix
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

River Plate Montevideo

(Home)
26 Sept
River Plate Montevideo
3 : 0
Colon
20 Sept
Cerrito
1 : 1
River Plate Montevideo
16 Sept
Albion
0 : 0
River Plate Montevideo
13 Sept
River Plate Montevideo
0 : 1
Fenix
06 Sept
Atenas
3 : 2
River Plate Montevideo
Page 1 of 6

Fenix

(Away)
26 Sept
Club Oriental De Futbol
3 : 2
Fenix
23 Sept
Boston River
3 : 2
Fenix
19 Sept
Fenix
1 : 1
Colon
13 Sept
River Plate Montevideo
0 : 1
Fenix
06 Sept
Rentistas
2 : 1
Fenix
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atenas 20 11 4 5 29:18 37
2 Plaza Colonia 20 9 5 6 25:18 32
3 Club Oriental De Futbol 20 8 7 5 29:22 31
4 River Plate Montevideo 20 8 6 6 29:23 30
5 Rentistas 20 8 6 6 24:22 30
6 Colon 20 8 5 7 20:23 29
7 Fenix 20 6 8 6 25:24 26
8 Cerrito 20 6 8 6 24:23 26
9 Huracan FC 20 7 5 8 21:26 26
10 Paysandu FC 20 7 4 9 26:27 25
11 Tacuarembo 20 6 6 8 16:22 24
12 La Luz 20 6 6 8 16:22 24
13 Miramar 20 5 7 8 22:26 22
14 Uruguay Montevideo FC 20 4 5 11 19:29 17
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya 2027 (Apertura)