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Roan United vs Nkana Prediction & H2H Stats

Zambia Zambia

Absa Cup 2025
Sat, Apr 5, 2025
1 - 2
01:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Chitembo W.
(Penalty)
75' Event
Mbombo I. I.

AI Match Summary

Nkana in this Absa Cup 2025 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Roan United
30%
Draws
39%
Nkana
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Nkana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Nkana have won more games recently than Roan United.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Nkana arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Nkana, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Roan United Clean Sheet 20%
Nkana Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Roan United Nkana
Matches Played 33 38
Wins 5 16
Draws 11 12
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 0.7 1.05
Goals Conceded 1.27 0.76
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2025 Absa Cup
Roan United vs Nkana
1:2
Sep 11, 2014 Super League
Roan United vs Nkana
1:2
Apr 12, 2014 Super League
Nkana vs Roan United
0:0
Sep 11, 2013 Super League
Roan United vs Nkana
1:1
Mar 16, 2013 Super League
Nkana vs Roan United
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Roan United Compare

Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Nkana Compare

Top Goalscorer Mbombo I. I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Roan United 32 / 100
Nkana 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Roan United Nkana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Nkana conceded in 61% of 38 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Roan United found the back of the net in 48% of recent matches (33 games).

Recent resilience: Roan United stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Roan United VS Nkana
0 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Roan United

(Home)
04 Apr
Roan United
0 : 2
Nchanga Rangers
05 Apr
Roan United
1 : 2
Nkana
22 Nov
Konkola Blades
0 : 2
Roan United
15 Nov
Roan United
1 : 1
Konkola Mine Police
26 Oct
Green Eagles
2 : 0
Roan United
Page 1 of 7

Nkana

(Away)
23 May
Kansanshi
0 : 0
Nkana
17 May
Nkana
1 : 2
Muza Fc
13 May
Zesco
0 : 1
Nkana
03 May
Nkana
0 : 1
Nchanga Rangers
30 Apr
NAPSA Stars
1 : 1
Nkana
Page 1 of 8

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Solwezi Academy 0
Konkola Blades 2
Bart's 1
Zesco 3
Kansanshi 4
Green Buffaloes FC 1
Roan United 1
Nkana 2
Prison Leopards 0
Green Eagles 1
Mpulungu Harbour 1
Red Arrows 6
Makeni All Stars 0
Kabwe 2
Air Power 0
Power Dynamos 3
Quarter-finals
Konkola Blades 0
Zesco 2
Kansanshi 0
Nkana 1
Green Eagles 1
Red Arrows 3
Kabwe 0
Power Dynamos 2
Semi-finals
Zesco 1
Nkana 0
Red Arrows 1
Power Dynamos 0
Final
Zesco 2
Red Arrows 1