Sport Picks
Match Events
19'
19'
Barlow A.
Assist: East R.
32'
32'
Payne L.
Assist: Nolan J.
43'
43'
Lewis P.
AI Match Summary
The National League 2025/2026 game between Rochdale and Morecambe finished 2-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Morecambe.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
21%
15%
64%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Morecambe
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
64%
/ High Confidence
- Rochdale carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Morecambe a 64% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Rochdale Clean Sheet 16%
Morecambe Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Rochdale | Morecambe |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 14 | 8 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 9 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.77 | 1.62 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.63 | 1.83 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 3, 2026 National League
Rochdale vs Morecambe
2:4
Dec 26, 2025 National League
Morecambe vs Rochdale
1:2
Sep 8, 2020 EFL Trophy
Morecambe vs Rochdale
1:2
Jul 29, 2017 Club Friendly
Morecambe vs Rochdale
0:1
Nov 10, 2015 EFL Trophy
Rochdale vs Morecambe
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Rochdale Compare
Top Goalscorer Barlow A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Henderson I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Morecambe Compare
Top Goalscorer Payne L.
2 Goals Assists Leader Nolan J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Rochdale 11 / 100
Morecambe 75 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Rochdale Morecambe
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Morecambe Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Rochdale scored in 83% of their last 30 games.
Morecambe has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.
Rochdale has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Rochdale VS Morecambe
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
2.13 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Rochdale
(Home) 05 Sept
Rochdale
1 : 4 Gillingham
01 Sept
Rochdale
3 : 0 Shrewsbury
29 Aug
Colchester
1 : 0 Rochdale
22 Aug
Rochdale
1 : 2 Crawley Town
15 Aug
Newport
3 : 0 Rochdale
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Rochdale
1 : 4 Gillingham
01 Sept
Rochdale
3 : 0 Shrewsbury
22 Aug
Rochdale
1 : 2 Crawley Town
28 Jul
Rochdale
2 : 3 Halifax
25 Jul
Rochdale
2 : 2 Farnham
Page 1 of 4
Morecambe
(Away) 08 Sept
Southport
2 : 1 Morecambe
05 Sept
Morecambe
4 : 0 Buxton
31 Aug
Chester
0 : 1 Morecambe
28 Aug
Morecambe
2 : 1 Telford
22 Aug
Radcliffe
2 : 1 Morecambe
Page 1 of 6
08 Sept
Southport
2 : 1 Morecambe
31 Aug
Chester
0 : 1 Morecambe
22 Aug
Radcliffe
2 : 1 Morecambe
15 Aug
Harborough
1 : 0 Morecambe
18 Jul
Bamber Bridge
0 : 3 Morecambe
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | York City | 46 | 33 | 9 | 4 | 114:41 | 108 |
| 2 | Rochdale | 46 | 33 | 7 | 6 | 88:41 | 106 |
| 3 | Carlisle | 46 | 29 | 8 | 9 | 87:51 | 95 |
| 4 | Boreham Wood | 46 | 27 | 9 | 10 | 95:58 | 90 |
| 5 | Scunthorpe | 46 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 77:62 | 82 |
| 6 | Southend | 46 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 83:47 | 81 |
| 7 | Forest Green | 46 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 82:52 | 81 |
| 8 | Halifax | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 69:66 | 70 |
| 9 | Hartlepool | 46 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 54:59 | 68 |
| 10 | Woking | 46 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 69:54 | 63 |
| 11 | Tamworth | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 63:71 | 62 |
| 12 | Boston United | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 63:67 | 59 |
| 13 | Altrincham | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 55:65 | 57 |
| 14 | Solihull Moors | 46 | 14 | 14 | 18 | 71:72 | 56 |
| 15 | Wealdstone | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 67:74 | 56 |
| 16 | Yeovil | 46 | 15 | 6 | 25 | 48:68 | 51 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 57:80 | 50 |
| 18 | Gateshead | 46 | 14 | 8 | 24 | 54:90 | 50 |
| 19 | Sutton | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 59:79 | 47 |
| 20 | Aldershot | 46 | 13 | 7 | 26 | 69:87 | 46 |
| 21 | Brackley | 46 | 10 | 12 | 24 | 40:75 | 42 |
| 22 | Morecambe | 46 | 9 | 11 | 26 | 66:103 | 38 |
| 23 | Braintree | 46 | 8 | 12 | 26 | 38:76 | 36 |
| 24 | Truro | 46 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 42:72 | 34 |
Promotion - League Two (Main)
Promotion - National League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
