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Rochdale vs Swindon - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

League Two Spotland Stadium, Rochdale
Rochdale Logo

Rochdale

1 - 0
FT
Swindon Logo

Swindon

Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Sub
Smith J. In: Hannant L.
Out: Smith J.
69'
Sub
Nichols T. In: Clarke O.
Out: Nichols T.
72'
Sub
Hannant L. In: Hayes C.
Out: Hannant L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The League Two game between Rochdale and Swindon finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Rochdale.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

77%
Rochdale
15%
Draws
8%
Swindon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Rochdale

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Rochdale come out ahead of Swindon on wins alone.
  • Model gives Rochdale a 77% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Rochdale Clean Sheet 20%
Swindon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rochdale Swindon
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 9
Draws 6 5
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.62 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 League Two
Rochdale vs Swindon
1:0
Mar 18, 2023 League Two
Rochdale vs Swindon
4:4
Aug 20, 2022 League Two
Swindon vs Rochdale
3:0
Apr 2, 2022 League Two
Rochdale vs Swindon
0:0
Oct 16, 2021 League Two
Swindon vs Rochdale
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rochdale Compare

Top Goalscorer Hayes C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Swindon Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rochdale 49 / 100
Swindon 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rochdale Swindon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rochdale Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Swindon let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Attacking prowess: Rochdale scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Rochdale remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Rochdale VS Swindon
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Rochdale

(Home)
06 Oct
Huddersfield
5 : 0
Rochdale
03 Oct
Rochdale
1 : 0
Swindon
26 Sept
Fleetwood Town
1 : 2
Rochdale
22 Sept
Rochdale
3 : 4
Liverpool U21
19 Sept
Rochdale
2 : 0
Oldham
Page 1 of 6

Swindon

(Away)
03 Oct
Rochdale
1 : 0
Swindon
26 Sept
Swindon
1 : 1
Accrington
22 Sept
Swindon
0 : 2
Newport
19 Sept
Salford
1 : 0
Swindon
15 Sept
Swindon
1 : 2
Crystal Palace U21
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Salford 9 5 1 3 13:10 16
2 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17:10 15
3 Crewe 9 3 6 0 11:7 15
4 Cheltenham 9 4 3 2 16:14 15
5 Bristol Rovers 9 5 0 4 14:14 15
6 York City 8 4 2 2 16:10 14
7 Walsall 8 3 5 0 11:5 14
8 Chesterfield 9 4 2 3 15:12 14
9 Grimsby 9 3 4 2 13:10 13
10 Gillingham 9 3 4 2 11:9 13
11 Rochdale 9 4 1 4 10:11 13
12 Tranmere 9 2 5 2 12:12 11
13 Swindon 9 3 2 4 9:13 11
14 Shrewsbury 9 3 2 4 9:14 11
15 Newport 9 2 4 3 12:12 10
16 Accrington 9 2 4 3 13:14 10
17 Rotherham 9 2 4 3 11:12 10
18 Fleetwood Town 9 2 4 3 9:10 10
19 Colchester 8 2 4 2 10:12 10
20 Exeter 9 2 3 4 5:6 9
21 Oldham 8 2 1 5 9:13 7
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3:6 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3:9 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6:13 4
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League 2027/2028 (Main)