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Rochedale vs Brisbane Roar U23

Australia Australia

NPL Queensland Underwood Park, Rochedale
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Vollenhoven D.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Queensland game between Rochedale and Brisbane Roar U23 finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Rochedale.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Rochedale
15%
Draws
42%
Brisbane Roar U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Rochedale

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Brisbane Roar U23 haven't matched Rochedale's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.8%
Rochedale Clean Sheet 10%
Brisbane Roar U23 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rochedale Brisbane Roar U23
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 7
Draws 4 3
Losses 16 20
Goals Scored 1.6 1.37
Goals Conceded 2.07 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 10, 2026 NPL Queensland
Brisbane Roar U23 vs Rochedale
4:1
Mar 14, 2026 NPL Queensland
Rochedale vs Brisbane Roar U23
1:0
Jul 20, 2024 NPL Queensland
Brisbane Roar U23 vs Rochedale
1:1
Apr 21, 2024 NPL Queensland
Rochedale vs Brisbane Roar U23
1:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rochedale Compare

Top Goalscorer Vollenhoven D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Brisbane Roar U23 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rochedale 30 / 100
Brisbane Roar U23 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rochedale Brisbane Roar U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Brisbane Roar U23 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rochedale's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Brisbane Roar U23 conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Brisbane Roar U23 lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Rochedale VS Brisbane Roar U23
1.75 Goals Scored 2
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Rochedale

(Home)
14 Aug
Olympic FC
1 : 2
Rochedale
08 Aug
Magic United TFA FC
2 : 1
Rochedale
31 Jul
Rochedale
2 : 1
Eastern Suburbs
18 Jul
Rochedale
2 : 3
Brisbane City
14 Jul
Rochedale
1 : 2
SD Raiders
Page 1 of 6

Brisbane Roar U23

(Away)
14 Aug
Brisbane Roar U23
1 : 2
Gold Coast Knights SC
07 Aug
Queensland Lions
4 : 2
Brisbane Roar U23
02 Aug
Brisbane Roar U23
2 : 0
Moreton City Excelsior
19 Jul
Olympic FC
3 : 1
Brisbane Roar U23
10 Jul
Brisbane Roar U23
4 : 1
Rochedale
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Queensland Lions 22 17 2 3 57:22 53
2 Peninsula 22 13 6 3 49:27 45
3 Moreton City Excelsior 22 12 3 7 51:35 39
4 Gold Coast Knights SC 22 11 5 6 46:32 38
5 Brisbane City 22 9 7 6 47:48 34
6 Wynnum Wolves 22 9 6 7 36:40 33
7 Eastern Suburbs 22 9 2 11 34:35 29
8 Olympic FC 22 8 2 12 39:43 26
9 Magic United TFA FC 22 7 1 14 33:59 22
10 Rochedale 22 6 3 13 34:52 21
11 Gold Coast Utd 22 6 2 14 26:39 20
12 Brisbane Roar U23 22 5 1 16 32:52 16
Promotion - NPL Queensland (Play Offs)
Relegation - Queensland Premier League (Main)