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Rockdale Ilinden vs APIA Leichhardt

Australia Australia

NPL NSW 2025 Rockdale Ilinden Sports Centre
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Kambayashi S.
22' Event
Urosevski A.
63' Event
Kelly D.

AI Match Summary

The NPL NSW 2025 game between Rockdale Ilinden and APIA Leichhardt finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward APIA Leichhardt.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Rockdale Ilinden
28%
Draws
22%
APIA Leichhardt
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Rockdale Ilinden

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • APIA Leichhardt carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Rockdale Ilinden's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular NPL NSW 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and APIA Leichhardt have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Rockdale Ilinden Clean Sheet 16%
APIA Leichhardt Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rockdale Ilinden APIA Leichhardt
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 22
Draws 6 3
Losses 10 4
Goals Scored 1.25 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 NPL NSW
APIA Leichhardt vs Rockdale Ilinden
0:2
Mar 14, 2026 NPL NSW
Rockdale Ilinden vs APIA Leichhardt
0:1
Sep 13, 2025 NPL NSW
Rockdale Ilinden vs APIA Leichhardt
1:2
Jul 13, 2025 NPL NSW
Rockdale Ilinden vs APIA Leichhardt
1:4
Mar 30, 2025 NPL NSW
APIA Leichhardt vs Rockdale Ilinden
4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rockdale Ilinden Compare

Top Goalscorer Urosevski A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

APIA Leichhardt Compare

Top Goalscorer Kambayashi S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kelly D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rockdale Ilinden 48 / 100
APIA Leichhardt 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rockdale Ilinden APIA Leichhardt

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ROC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Rockdale Ilinden scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

APIA Leichhardt has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Rockdale Ilinden went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Rockdale Ilinden VS APIA Leichhardt
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
NWS Spirit-
TBD-
Rockdale Ilinden1
Blacktown City0
APIA Leichhardt-
TBD-
Marconi Stallions2
Sydney Utd1
Semi-finals
NWS Spirit1
Rockdale Ilinden2
APIA Leichhardt2
Marconi Stallions0
Final
Rockdale Ilinden1
APIA Leichhardt2