Sport Picks

Netherlands

KNVB Beker Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Kerkrade

De Graafschap

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the KNVB Beker. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Recent numbers: Roda at 1.5 goals for, 1.23 against; De Graafschap at 1.79 for, 2.39 against. Past meetings favor Roda slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Dec 12, 2025, ending 2:3. Model xG sits at 2.13 vs 1.13, favoring Roda. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%

Roda

30%

Draws

18%

De Graafschap

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Roda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence

De Graafschap haven't matched Roda's recent run of results.
52% — that's where the model lands on Roda taking it.
Roda have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor De Graafschap, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%

Roda Clean Sheet 20%

De Graafschap Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Roda	De Graafschap
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	10	9
Draws	10	6
Losses	10	13
Goals Scored	1.5	1.79
Goals Conceded	1.23	2.39
Expected Goals (xG)	2.13	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 12, 2025 Eerste Divisie

De Graafschap vs Roda

2:3

Aug 15, 2025 Eerste Divisie

Roda vs De Graafschap

1:0

Apr 6, 2025 Eerste Divisie

De Graafschap vs Roda

2:0

Sep 1, 2024 Eerste Divisie

Roda vs De Graafschap

1:4

Apr 19, 2024 Eerste Divisie

Roda vs De Graafschap

1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Roda 85 / 100

De Graafschap 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Roda De Graafschap

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Roda Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

De Graafschap's defensive record shows goals conceded in 89% of 28 matches.

Solid form: Roda remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Roda's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Roda VS De Graafschap

1.13 Goals Scored 1.13

1.13 Goals Conceded 3.13

50% Over 1.5 100%

38% Over 2.5 88%

25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Roda

(Home)

18 Sept

Jong Ajax

0 : 0

Roda

12 Sept

Roda

1 : 0

Vitesse

06 Sept

Maastricht

1 : 1

Roda

28 Aug

Roda

2 : 2

NAC Breda

21 Aug

Dordrecht

0 : 1

Roda

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De Graafschap

(Away)

20 Sept

De Graafschap

1 : 2

NAC Breda

11 Sept

FC Emmen

1 : 2

De Graafschap

04 Sept

Heracles

5 : 0

De Graafschap

29 Aug

De Graafschap

1 : 4

Almere City

23 Aug

Venlo

2 : 1

De Graafschap

Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/128-finals

ACV Assen 6

Westlandia 1

VV Hoogeveen 3

SVZW Wierden 2

Groene Ster 2

VV Heerjansdam 1

Be Quick 1887 0

AFC 2

Hardenberg -

TBD -

Barendrecht -

TBD -

Harkemase Boys 0

Excelsior 31 1

Alkmaarse FC 1934 4

VV Scherpenzeel 1

TBD -

Sportlust 3

Blauw Geel 1

ADO 20 Heemskerk 1

Excelsior Maassluis 2

TBD -

GVVV -

TBD -

ATC 65 1

DVS '33 Ermelo 2

GOES 0

VV Noordwijk 1

HZVV Hoogeveen 0

Frisia 4

TBD -

Sparta Nijkerk 2

Venray 0

Rkvv Spartaan 20 0

RKSV UDI 19 5

Dongen 2

Watergraafsmeer 4

TEC 4

Almkerk 2

TBD -

NAC Breda -

Longa '30 0

Koninklijke HFC 4

Surhusterfean 1

VV DOVO 2

TBD -

G.A. Eagles -

Mierlo-Hout 2

Germania Groesbeek 3

TBD -

Kozakken Boys -

TBD -

Utrecht -

Maastricht -

TBD -

Excelsior -

Zwolle -

TBD -

TOP Oss -

Quick Boys -

TBD -

Elinkwijk 0

Eemdijk 3

GSV 28 0

Roosendaal 4

Rijnsburgse Boys -

TBD -

Den Bosch -

RKAV Volendam -

TBD -

Spakenburg -

TOGB 3

Katwijk 2

TBD -

Rohda Raalte -

Roda -

TBD -

De Graafschap -

Staphorst 3

UNA 2

Genemuiden 2

Lisse 1

TBD -

Dordrecht -

Sparta Rotterdam -

TBD -

Sittard -

Telstar -

TBD -

Almere City -

Lierop 0

VV Zwaluwen 7

Purmersteijn 4

RKVV Zwaluw 3

IJsselmeervogels -

TBD -

FC 's-Gravenzande 0

Gemert 2

NSVV 2

VV Kloetinge 4

Achilles Veen 4

SV Poortugaal 2

TBD -

Cambuur -

Venlo -

TBD -

Vitesse -

Rijnvogels 5

VV Bennekom 0

VVSB 2

Ajax (Am) 0

USV Hercules 1

EVV 3

HVV Hollandia 2

RKSV Halsteren 3

TBD -

1/64-finals

ACV Assen 2

VV Hoogeveen 1

Groene Ster 1

AFC 6

Hardenberg 0

Barendrecht 1

TBD -

Excelsior 31 4

Alkmaarse FC 1934 3

TBD -

Sportlust 0

Excelsior Maassluis 2

TBD -

GVVV 4

DVS '33 Ermelo 0

VV Noordwijk 1

Frisia 0

TBD -

Sparta Nijkerk 3

RKSV UDI 19 1

Watergraafsmeer 5

TEC 4

TBD -

NAC Breda -

Koninklijke HFC 3

VV DOVO 1

TBD -

G.A. Eagles -

Germania Groesbeek 1

Kozakken Boys 5

TBD -

Utrecht -

Maastricht -

TBD -

Excelsior -

Zwolle -

TBD -

TOP Oss -

Quick Boys -

TBD -

Eemdijk 2

Roosendaal 1

Rijnsburgse Boys -

TBD -

Den Bosch -

RKAV Volendam 3

Spakenburg 2

TOGB 4

Rohda Raalte 6

Roda -

TBD -

De Graafschap -

Staphorst 2

Genemuiden 3

TBD -

Dordrecht -

Sparta Rotterdam -

TBD -

Sittard -

Telstar -

TBD -

Almere City -

VV Zwaluwen 0

Purmersteijn 1

IJsselmeervogels 0

Gemert 3

VV Kloetinge 8

Achilles Veen 0

TBD -

Cambuur -

Venlo -

TBD -

Vitesse -

Rijnvogels 0

VVSB 1

EVV 3

RKSV Halsteren 1

TBD -

1/32-finals

ACV Assen -

AFC -

Barendrecht -

Waalwijk -

De Treffers -

Heracles -

Excelsior 31 -

Den Haag -

Excelsior Maassluis -

Heerenveen -

Eindhoven FC -

FC Volendam -

Groningen -

FC Emmen -

GVVV -

VV Noordwijk -

Helmond Sport -

Willem II -

HSV Hoek -

Sparta Nijkerk -

Watergraafsmeer -

NAC Breda -

Koninklijke HFC -

G.A. Eagles -

Kozakken Boys -

Utrecht -

Maastricht -

Excelsior -

Zwolle -

TOP Oss -

Quick Boys -

Eemdijk -

Rijnsburgse Boys -

Den Bosch -

RKAV Volendam -

Rohda Raalte -

Roda -

De Graafschap -

Genemuiden -

Dordrecht -

Sparta Rotterdam -

Sittard -

Telstar -

Almere City -

Purmersteijn -

Gemert -

VV Kloetinge -

Cambuur -

Venlo -

Vitesse -

VVSB -

EVV -

TBD -

1/16-finals

TBD -

1/8-finals

TBD -

Quarter-finals

TBD -

Semi-finals

TBD -

Final

TBD -

Roda vs De Graafschap

Netherlands

Roda

De Graafschap

AI Match Summary

Win Probability Meter

Model Confidence

Goal Probability Engine

Recent Team Form Analysis

H2H

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Scoring Trends

Recent Form & Match History

Roda

De Graafschap

Tournament Bracket & Draw

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