Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Rodina Moscow vs Baltika

Russia Russia

Premier League Arena Khimki, Khimki
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Mourid A.
26'
Mourid A.
30'
Beveev M.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Rodina Moscow and Baltika finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Baltika.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Rodina Moscow
20%
Draws
40%
Baltika
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Rodina Moscow come out ahead of Baltika on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Rodina Moscow Clean Sheet 10%
Baltika Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rodina Moscow Baltika
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 10
Draws 5 8
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.79 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.76 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Premier League
Rodina Moscow vs Baltika
0:3
Nov 23, 2024 FNL
Baltika vs Rodina Moscow
2:1
Jul 14, 2024 FNL
Rodina Moscow vs Baltika
0:0
Apr 7, 2023 FNL
Baltika vs Rodina Moscow
0:0
Sep 18, 2022 FNL
Rodina Moscow vs Baltika
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rodina Moscow Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Baltika Compare

Top Goalscorer Mourid A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Offor C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rodina Moscow 34 / 100
Baltika 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rodina Moscow Baltika

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Baltika Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rodina Moscow's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Baltika conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Baltika has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Rodina Moscow VS Baltika
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Rodina Moscow

(Home)
04 Oct
Dynamo Moscow
3 : 2
Rodina Moscow
27 Sept
Partizan
2 : 3
Rodina Moscow
16 Sept
Rodina Moscow
1 : 1
Rubin Kazan
11 Sept
Krylya Sovetov Samara
2 : 1
Rodina Moscow
06 Sept
Dynamo Makhachkala
2 : 0
Rodina Moscow
Page 1 of 6

Baltika

(Away)
16 Sept
Baltika
2 : 3
Zenit St Petersburg
12 Sept
Fakel Voronezh
2 : 2
Baltika
06 Sept
Baltika
0 : 1
Lokomotiv Moscow
02 Sept
Baltika
0 : 1
Krylya Sovetov Samara
30 Aug
Rodina Moscow
0 : 3
Baltika
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Krasnodar 9 6 3 0 14:7 21
2 Dynamo Moscow 9 6 1 2 14:8 19
3 CSKA Moscow 9 5 4 0 15:9 19
4 Spartak Moscow 9 6 1 2 16:7 19
5 Zenit St Petersburg 9 6 0 3 19:9 18
6 Rubin Kazan 9 2 6 1 12:11 12
7 Dynamo Makhachkala 9 4 0 5 15:16 12
8 Baltika 9 3 2 4 14:12 11
9 Krylya Sovetov Samara 9 2 5 2 13:14 11
10 Akhmat Grozny 9 2 4 3 13:13 10
11 Orenburg 9 1 6 2 7:10 9
12 FK Rostov 9 2 2 5 10:17 8
13 Akron Togliatti 9 1 5 3 11:18 8
14 Lokomotiv Moscow 9 1 4 4 8:11 7
15 Rodina Moscow 9 1 2 6 10:22 5
16 Fakel Voronezh 9 0 3 6 6:13 3
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - FNL 2027/2028 (Main)