Sport Picks
Rodina Moscow vs Chelyabinsk Prediction & H2H Stats
Russia
FNL 2025/2026 Arena Khimki, Khimki 
Match Events
25'
25'
Timoshenko I.
28'
28'
Gadzhimuradov R.
53'
53'
Gudkov Y.
AI Match Summary
The FNL 2025/2026 game between Rodina Moscow and Chelyabinsk finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Rodina Moscow.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
30%
47%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Chelyabinsk
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Chelyabinsk haven't matched Rodina Moscow's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Chelyabinsk's way, sitting at 50%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Chelyabinsk have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Rodina Moscow Clean Sheet 11%
Chelyabinsk Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Rodina Moscow | Chelyabinsk |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 6 |
| Draws | 6 | 12 |
| Losses | 11 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.67 | 1.1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.63 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 8, 2026 FNL
Rodina Moscow vs Chelyabinsk
2:0
Feb 20, 2026 Club Friendly
Chelyabinsk vs Rodina Moscow
1:0
Oct 15, 2025 Russian Cup
Rodina Moscow vs Chelyabinsk
0:1
Sep 20, 2025 FNL
Chelyabinsk vs Rodina Moscow
4:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Rodina Moscow Compare
Top Goalscorer Timoshenko I.
1 Goals Assists Leader Gharibyan A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Chelyabinsk Compare
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Rodina Moscow 22 / 100
Chelyabinsk 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Rodina Moscow Chelyabinsk
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Chelyabinsk Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Chelyabinsk's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.
Rodina Moscow scored in 70% of their last 30 games.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Rodina Moscow stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Rodina Moscow VS Chelyabinsk
1 Goals Scored 1
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Rodina Moscow
(Home) 27 Sept
Partizan
2 : 3 Rodina Moscow
16 Sept
Rodina Moscow
1 : 1 Rubin Kazan
11 Sept
Krylya Sovetov Samara
2 : 1 Rodina Moscow
06 Sept
Dynamo Makhachkala
2 : 0 Rodina Moscow
02 Sept
Spartak Moscow
3 : 1 Rodina Moscow
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Rodina Moscow
1 : 1 Rubin Kazan
30 Aug
Rodina Moscow
0 : 3 Baltika
18 Aug
Rodina Moscow
1 : 4 Orenburg
15 Aug
Rodina Moscow
3 : 3 Akron Togliatti
04 Aug
Rodina Moscow
5 : 0 Rubin Kazan
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Chelyabinsk
(Away) 26 Sept
Chelyabinsk
1 : 1 Yenisey
18 Sept
Chelyabinsk
2 : 1 Ufa
14 Sept
Kamaz
1 : 1 Chelyabinsk
10 Sept
Dynamo Barnaul
0 : 2 Chelyabinsk
05 Sept
Chelyabinsk
0 : 1 S. Kostroma
Page 1 of 6
14 Sept
Kamaz
1 : 1 Chelyabinsk
10 Sept
Dynamo Barnaul
0 : 2 Chelyabinsk
30 Aug
PFC Sochi
2 : 1 Chelyabinsk
23 Aug
Leningradets
1 : 1 Chelyabinsk
09 Aug
R. Volgograd
4 : 1 Chelyabinsk
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodina Moscow | 34 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 58:28 | 68 |
| 2 | Fakel Voronezh | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 44:22 | 68 |
| 3 | Ural | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 51:31 | 61 |
| 4 | R. Volgograd | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 47:26 | 56 |
| 5 | Kamaz | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 46:34 | 49 |
| 6 | Yenisey | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 37:35 | 49 |
| 7 | S. Kostroma | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 46:41 | 49 |
| 8 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 34 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 34:28 | 48 |
| 9 | Torpedo Moscow | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 37:39 | 46 |
| 10 | Chelyabinsk | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 42:40 | 44 |
| 11 | Neftekhimik | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 40:41 | 43 |
| 12 | SKA Khabarovsk | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37:45 | 42 |
| 13 | Arsenal Tula | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 42:44 | 39 |
| 14 | Ulyanovsk | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 35:48 | 37 |
| 15 | Ufa | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 32:40 | 37 |
| 16 | Chernomorets Novorossijsk | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 37:49 | 35 |
| 17 | Saratov | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 16:44 | 26 |
| 18 | FK Chayka Peschanokopskoye | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30:76 | 22 |
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
