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Romania vs Sweden - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Arena Nationala, Bucharest
Romania Logo

Romania

0 - 1
FT
Sweden Logo

Sweden

Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Bancu N.
13' Event
Gyokeres V.
46'
Sub
Bancu N. In: Eissat L.
Out: Bancu N.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Sweden in this UEFA Nations League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sweden.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Romania
15%
Draws
65%
Sweden
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sweden

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sweden lately — more wins on the board than Romania.
  • Sweden are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Sweden here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Romania Clean Sheet 10%
Sweden Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Romania Sweden
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 13 16
Draws 6 6
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.61 1.91
Goals Conceded 1.35 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Romania vs Sweden
0:1
Sep 25, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Sweden vs Romania
2:1
Nov 15, 2019 Euro
Romania vs Sweden
0:2
Mar 23, 2019 Euro
Sweden vs Romania
2:1
Mar 27, 2018 Friendly International
Romania vs Sweden
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Romania Compare

Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sweden Compare

Top Goalscorer Gyokeres V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Romania 10 / 100
Sweden 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Romania Sweden

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sweden Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:7
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Sweden conceded in 81% of 32 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Romania scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Romania has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Romania VS Sweden
1.63 Goals Scored 2.13
2.25 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Romania

(Home)
05 Oct
Romania
0 : 1
Sweden
02 Oct
Poland
6 : 0
Romania
28 Sept
Romania
2 : 4
Bosnia & Herzegovina
25 Sept
Sweden
2 : 1
Romania
06 Jun
Romania
2 : 1
Wales
Page 1 of 7

Sweden

(Away)
05 Oct
Romania
0 : 1
Sweden
02 Oct
Bosnia & Herzegovina
1 : 1
Sweden
28 Sept
Sweden
3 : 1
Poland
25 Sept
Sweden
2 : 1
Romania
30 Jun
France
3 : 0
Sweden
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Switzerland 4 4 0 0 11:1 12
2 Slovenia 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
3 Scotland 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
4 North Macedonia 4 0 0 4 0:10 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Northern Ireland 4 2 2 0 4:0 8
2 Hungary 4 2 1 1 3:2 7
3 Ukraine 4 1 1 2 2:5 4
4 Georgia 4 0 2 2 0:2 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Austria 4 2 2 0 9:5 8
2 Kosovo 4 1 2 1 3:4 5
3 Ireland 4 1 2 1 6:4 5
4 Israel 4 0 2 2 2:7 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sweden 4 3 1 0 7:3 10
2 Bosnia & Herzegovina 4 2 2 0 6:3 8
3 Poland 4 1 1 2 7:4 4
4 Romania 4 0 0 4 3:13 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)