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Rotherham vs Derby - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Szmodics S.
(Penalty)
46'
Sub
Szmodics S. In: Blackett-Taylor C.
Out: Szmodics S.
46'
Sub
Taylor C. In: Forsyth C.
Out: Taylor C.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Rotherham
30%
Draws
23%
Derby
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Rotherham

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Rotherham haven't matched Derby's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Derby's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Rotherham Clean Sheet 20%
Derby Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rotherham Derby
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 7 10
Draws 9 4
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 0.97 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 4, 2026 Club Friendly
Rotherham vs Derby
1:1
Feb 3, 2021 Championship
Rotherham vs Derby
3:0
Jan 16, 2021 Championship
Derby vs Rotherham
0:1
Mar 30, 2019 Championship
Derby vs Rotherham
6:1
Sep 15, 2018 Championship
Rotherham vs Derby
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rotherham Compare

Top Goalscorer Ashley O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Derby Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rotherham 28 / 100
Derby 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rotherham Derby

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Derby Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rotherham scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Derby has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Derby has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Rotherham VS Derby
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Rotherham

(Home)
10 Oct
Rotherham
1 : 4
Gillingham
06 Oct
Rotherham
0 : 4
Bradford City
03 Oct
Exeter
1 : 0
Rotherham
26 Sept
Rotherham
1 : 1
Crewe
22 Sept
York City
1 : 2
Rotherham
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Derby

(Away)
10 Oct
Derby
1 : 1
Wrexham
19 Sept
Burnley
1 : 1
Derby
12 Sept
Derby
1 : 2
Birmingham
09 Sept
Derby
0 : 1
West Brom
05 Sept
West Ham
3 : 0
Derby
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