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Rouen vs Bastia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 3 Stade Robert Diochon, Rouen
Sat, Nov 7, 2026
VS
01:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Rouen host Bastia in the Ligue 3. This one's hard to separate. Bastia have shipped 1.28 goals a game lately, while Rouen have conceded 1.03 and scored 1.33. Head-to-head, Rouen have won 1 to Bastia's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Jul 22, 2023, ending 0:2. The numbers (1.56 xG vs 0.69) point toward Rouen. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Rouen
30%
Draws
28%
Bastia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Rouen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Rouen have won more games recently than Bastia.
  • Win probability leans Rouen's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Ligue 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Rouen Clean Sheet 20%
Bastia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rouen Bastia
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 6
Draws 10 13
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.33 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 22, 2023 Club Friendly
Rouen vs Bastia
0:2
Jan 22, 2011 Ligue 3
Rouen vs Bastia
0:1
Aug 21, 2010 Ligue 3
Bastia vs Rouen
0:0
Feb 5, 1994 Ligue 2
Rouen vs Bastia
2:0
Aug 28, 1993 Ligue 2
Bastia vs Rouen
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rouen 85 / 100
Bastia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rouen Bastia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rouen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rouen's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Bastia conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Rouen has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

H2H data points to 1.40 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Rouen VS Bastia
1.88 Goals Scored 0.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Rouen

(Home)
17 Oct
Paris 13 Atletico
3 : 1
Rouen
03 Oct
Rouen
2 : 0
Bourg Peronnas
24 Sept
Caen
3 : 2
Rouen
19 Sept
Rouen
1 : 0
Aubagne FC
12 Sept
Thionville
0 : 4
Rouen
Page 1 of 6

Bastia

(Away)
17 Oct
Concarneau
1 : 1
Bastia
01 Oct
Bastia
1 : 1
Orleans
26 Sept
Paris 13 Atletico
1 : 0
Bastia
17 Sept
Bastia
1 : 1
Cannes
12 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 1
Bastia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Roche Vendee 10 6 3 1 16:10 21
2 Rouen 10 6 2 2 18:8 20
3 Versailles 10 6 1 3 15:13 19
4 Caen 10 6 0 4 19:13 18
5 Concarneau 10 4 5 1 13:9 17
6 Le Puy-en-Velay 10 5 1 4 12:9 16
7 Amiens SC 10 4 4 2 13:4 16
8 Cannes 10 3 6 1 12:6 15
9 Fleury 91 10 4 3 3 16:12 15
10 Paris 13 Atletico 10 4 3 3 10:10 15
11 Quevilly 10 3 4 3 11:14 13
12 Thionville 10 3 3 4 15:16 12
13 Bastia 10 3 3 4 8:12 12
14 Valenciennes 10 2 3 5 10:15 9
15 Orleans 10 2 3 5 9:14 9
16 Aubagne FC 10 2 1 7 6:13 7
17 Villefranche 10 2 1 7 9:23 7
18 Bourg Peronnas 10 1 2 7 5:16 5
Promotion - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Relegation)