Sport Picks

Stadium Background

RW Essen vs Verl

Germany Germany

3. Liga 2025/2026 Stadion an der Hafenstrasse, Essen
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Swajkowski G.
20'
Stocker M.
39'
Otto Y.

AI Match Summary

RW Essen in this 3. Liga 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored RW Essen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
RW Essen
15%
Draws
57%
Verl
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Verl

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to RW Essen lately — more wins on the board than Verl.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
RW Essen Clean Sheet 10%
Verl Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric RW Essen Verl
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 16 15
Draws 4 3
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 2.3 2.31
Goals Conceded 1.8 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 3. Liga
RW Essen vs Verl
1:0
Dec 13, 2025 3. Liga
Verl vs RW Essen
0:0
Mar 28, 2025 3. Liga
Verl vs RW Essen
3:0
Oct 23, 2024 3. Liga
RW Essen vs Verl
1:3
Mar 10, 2024 3. Liga
Verl vs RW Essen
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

RW Essen Compare

Top Goalscorer Swajkowski G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

Verl Compare

Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

RW Essen 30 / 100
Verl 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
RW Essen Verl

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

RW Essen scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Verl's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Verl has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

RW Essen VS Verl
2.75 Goals Scored 2.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

RW Essen

(Home)
09 Aug
Saarbrucken
5 : 2
RW Essen
01 Aug
Bayer Leverkusen
3 : 0
RW Essen
25 Jul
RW Essen
1 : 2
B. Monchengladbach
17 Jul
Ried
3 : 0
RW Essen
11 Jul
RW Essen
5 : 1
SW Essen
Page 1 of 6

Verl

(Away)
09 Aug
Alemannia Aachen
4 : 1
Verl
01 Aug
RB Leipzig
4 : 0
Verl
26 Jul
Verl
6 : 1
Bremer
18 Jul
Wolfsburg
3 : 0
Verl
15 Jul
Paderborn II
0 : 1
Verl
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 VfL Osnabruck 38 24 8 6 66:34 80
2 Energie Cottbus 38 21 9 8 72:51 72
3 RW Essen 38 20 10 8 78:66 70
4 Duisburg 38 19 11 8 66:49 68
5 Hansa Rostock 38 18 13 7 74:49 67
6 Verl 38 18 10 10 82:48 64
7 Alemannia Aachen 38 19 7 12 76:57 64
8 Munich 1860 38 15 11 12 54:53 56
9 Wehen 38 15 8 15 54:52 53
10 Mannheim 38 15 7 16 59:72 52
11 FC Viktoria Koln 38 15 6 17 51:53 51
12 Ingolstadt 38 13 10 15 65:56 49
13 Regensburg 38 14 7 17 54:58 49
14 VfB Stuttgart II 38 13 7 18 57:69 46
15 Saarbrucken 38 10 14 14 51:57 44
16 Hoffenheim II 38 12 7 19 65:71 43
17 TSV Havelse 38 9 8 21 57:89 35
18 Aue 38 7 13 18 51:70 34
19 Ulm 38 9 6 23 49:78 33
20 1. FC Schweinfurt 38 5 6 27 38:87 21
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga (Main)
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Relegation)