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Rwanda vs Liberia

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations Stade Amahoro, Kigali
Rwanda Logo

Rwanda

3 - 1
FT
Liberia Logo

Liberia

Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Biramahire A.
Assist: Mickels L.
33' Event
Mickels L.
Assist: Byiringiro G.
34'
Mugisha B.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. The second leg ended 3-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Rwanda
15%
Draws
26%
Liberia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Rwanda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Liberia haven't matched Rwanda's recent run of results.
  • Rwanda are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Rwanda have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Rwanda, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Rwanda Clean Sheet 68%
Liberia Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rwanda Liberia
Matches Played 27 24
Wins 11 6
Draws 5 7
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.04 1
Goals Conceded 0.96 1.58
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 25, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations
Rwanda vs Liberia
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rwanda Compare

Top Goalscorer Biramahire A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mickels L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Liberia Compare

Top Goalscorer Nimely S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rwanda 95 / 100
Liberia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rwanda Liberia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rwanda Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Liberia conceded in 92% of 24 recent games.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Solid form: Rwanda remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Difficult form: Liberia registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Rwanda VS Liberia
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Rwanda

(Home)
25 Sept
Rwanda
3 : 1
Liberia
30 Mar
Rwanda
2 : 0
Estonia
27 Mar
Rwanda
4 : 0
Grenada
14 Oct
South Africa
3 : 0
Rwanda
10 Oct
Rwanda
0 : 1
Benin
Page 1 of 6

Liberia

(Away)
25 Sept
Rwanda
3 : 1
Liberia
09 Jun
Liberia
3 : 1
Sierra Leone
06 Jun
Sierra Leone
1 : 0
Liberia
31 Mar
Liberia
2 : 2
Libya
27 Mar
Benin
1 : 0
Liberia
Page 1 of 5

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
2 Niger 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
3 Lesotho 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
4 Gabon 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Malawi 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
2 Egypt 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
3 Angola 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
4 South Sudan 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivory Coast 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
2 Gambia 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
3 Somalia 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
4 Ghana 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Africa 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
2 Eritrea 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
3 Kenya 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
4 Guinea 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 D.R. Congo 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
2 Zimbabwe 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
3 Sierra Leone 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
4 Equatorial Guinea 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mauritania 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
2 Benin 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
3 Burkina Faso 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
4 Central Africa 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameroon 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
2 Namibia 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
3 Congo 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
4 Comoros 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Botswana 1 0 1 0 2:2 1
2 Uganda 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
3 Libya 1 0 1 0 2:2 1
4 Tunisia 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
2 Togo 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
3 Burundi 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
4 Zambia 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sudan 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
2 Senegal 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
3 Mozambique 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
4 Ethiopia 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rwanda 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
2 Mali 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
3 Cape Verde 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
4 Liberia 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guinea Bissau 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
2 Nigeria 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
3 Madagascar 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
4 Tanzania 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)