Sport Picks

Rwanda vs Libya Prediction & H2H Stats

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade Amahoro, Kigali

Rwanda

0 - 1

Libya

Our Tip

Match Events

46'

Sub

Gueulette S. In: Dushimimana O.

Out: Gueulette S.

46'

Sub

Kwizera J. In: Muhire K.

Out: Kwizera J.

60'

Al Wuheeshi M.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Libya in this Africa Cup of Nations 2025 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%

Rwanda

30%

Draws

14%

Libya

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Rwanda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence

Attack-wise there's a gap: Libya at 1.17 per game, Rwanda at 1.11.
Rwanda are the model's pick here, at 80%.
Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
Historical meetings favor Libya, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 44%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%

Rwanda Clean Sheet 68%

Libya Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Rwanda	Libya
Matches Played	27	30
Wins	12	12
Draws	4	11
Losses	11	7
Goals Scored	1.11	1.17
Goals Conceded	1	0.93
Expected Goals (xG)	0.94	0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 14, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Rwanda vs Libya

0:1

Sep 4, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Libya vs Rwanda

1:1

Jan 23, 2018 African Nations Championship

Rwanda vs Libya

0:1

Dec 7, 2017 CECAFA Championship

Rwanda vs Libya

0:0

Nov 17, 2015 World Championship

Rwanda vs Libya

1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rwanda Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72

Avg xA / game 0.47

Libya Compare

Top Goalscorer Al Mesmari F.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.85

Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rwanda 86 / 100

Libya 11 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Rwanda Libya

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rwanda Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Libya conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Rwanda remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Rwanda's goal record stands at 56% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Rwanda VS Libya

0.88 Goals Scored 1.25

0.63 Goals Conceded 1

38% Over 1.5 50%

25% Over 2.5 38%

13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Rwanda

(Home)

29 Sept

Cape Verde

1 : 2

Rwanda

25 Sept

Rwanda

3 : 1

Liberia

30 Mar

Rwanda

2 : 0

Estonia

27 Mar

Rwanda

4 : 0

Grenada

14 Oct

South Africa

3 : 0

Rwanda

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Libya

(Away)

29 Sept

Uganda

1 : 0

Libya

24 Sept

Libya

2 : 2

Botswana

31 Mar

Liberia

2 : 2

Libya

27 Mar

Libya

0 : 0

Niger

25 Nov

Palestine

1 : 0

Libya

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