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Ryukyu vs Kagoshima United Prediction & H2H Stats

Japan Japan

J2/J3 League Okinawa Athletic Park Stadium, Okinawa
Ryukyu Logo

Ryukyu

Sun, May 3, 2026
1 - 2
09:00 AM
Kagoshima United Logo

Kagoshima United

Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Asakawa H.
Assist: Ishiura T.
32' Event
Arita R.
Assist: Fukuda M.
46'
Sub
Fujimura K. In: Yoshio K.
Out: Fujimura K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Kagoshima United in this J2/J3 League matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kagoshima United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Ryukyu
20%
Draws
52%
Kagoshima United
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Kagoshima United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Kagoshima United lately — more wins on the board than Ryukyu.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Kagoshima United taking it.
  • Regular J2/J3 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Kagoshima United have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Ryukyu Clean Sheet 12%
Kagoshima United Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ryukyu Kagoshima United
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 20
Draws 2 2
Losses 17 6
Goals Scored 1.14 1.71
Goals Conceded 1.55 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 J3 League
Kagoshima United vs Ryukyu
2:1
May 3, 2026 J2/J3 League
Ryukyu vs Kagoshima United
1:2
Feb 15, 2026 J2/J3 League
Kagoshima United vs Ryukyu
3:1
Nov 23, 2025 J3 League
Kagoshima United vs Ryukyu
1:1
May 6, 2025 J3 League
Ryukyu vs Kagoshima United
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ryukyu Compare

Top Goalscorer Asakawa H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Kagoshima United Compare

Top Goalscorer Arita R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ryukyu 27 / 100
Kagoshima United 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ryukyu Kagoshima United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kagoshima United Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ryukyu scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Kagoshima United's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Ryukyu went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ryukyu VS Kagoshima United
1.5 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ryukyu

(Home)
03 Oct
Ryukyu
0 : 2
Kanazawa
26 Sept
Ryukyu
1 : 1
Ehime
20 Sept
Reilac Shiga
3 : 0
Ryukyu
13 Sept
Ryukyu
1 : 0
Kamatamare Sanuki
09 Sept
Ryukyu
3 : 0
Giravanz Kitakyushu
Page 1 of 6

Kagoshima United

(Away)
04 Oct
Kagoshima United
3 : 2
Fukushima United
26 Sept
Giravanz Kitakyushu
1 : 1
Kagoshima United
19 Sept
Kagoshima United
3 : 1
Tochigi SC
13 Sept
Reilac Shiga
1 : 2
Kagoshima United
05 Sept
Kagoshima United
2 : 1
Ryukyu
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vegalta Sendai 18 16 0 2 37:15 43
2 Blaublitz 18 11 0 7 23:16 35
3 Shonan Bellmare 18 11 0 7 28:20 31
4 Yokohama FC 18 10 0 8 36:28 29
5 SC Sagamihara 18 9 0 9 33:36 28
6 Thespakusatsu Gunma 18 7 0 11 27:39 23
7 Montedio Yamagata 18 8 0 10 22:25 22
8 Tochigi City 18 7 0 11 22:35 21
9 Vanraure 17 5 0 12 16:23 18
10 Tochigi SC 17 5 0 12 24:31 17
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kofu 17 11 0 6 20:12 33
2 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 18 11 0 7 28:22 31
3 Iwaki 18 11 0 7 26:20 31
4 Omiya Ardija 18 10 0 8 39:29 30
5 Fujieda MYFC 18 9 0 9 24:23 30
6 Gifu 17 9 0 8 23:25 27
7 Matsumoto Yamaga 18 8 0 10 33:25 26
8 Iwata 18 9 0 9 20:25 25
9 Fukushima United 18 6 0 12 30:43 18
10 Nagano Parceiro 18 5 0 13 17:36 16
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Toyama 18 13 0 5 40:26 38
2 Albirex Niigata 18 12 0 6 24:19 35
3 Tokushima 18 11 0 7 38:23 32
4 Kochi United 18 10 0 8 25:23 30
5 Ehime 18 9 0 9 26:20 28
6 Kanazawa 18 10 0 8 20:23 27
7 Nara Club 18 7 0 11 27:36 21
8 FC Osaka 18 6 0 12 18:23 20
9 Imabari 18 6 0 12 15:21 20
10 Kamatamare Sanuki 18 6 0 12 15:34 19
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 18 15 0 3 35:13 47
2 Kagoshima United 18 12 0 6 27:16 33
3 Sagan Tosu 18 10 0 8 26:18 32
4 Renofa Yamaguchi 18 10 0 8 27:24 29
5 Kumamoto 18 9 0 9 21:21 27
6 Gainare Tottori 18 10 0 8 24:25 27
7 Oita Trinita 18 7 0 11 19:20 22
8 Reilac Shiga 18 7 0 11 16:29 21
9 Ryukyu 18 6 0 12 17:28 17
10 Giravanz Kitakyushu 18 4 0 14 17:35 15
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)