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S. Agata vs Paterno

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Luis Henrique
21' Event
Catalano G.
39' Event
Guida A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2024/2025 game between S. Agata and Paterno finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Paterno.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
S. Agata
30%
Draws
12%
Paterno
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: S. Agata

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Paterno carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on S. Agata taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
S. Agata Clean Sheet 20%
Paterno Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric S. Agata Paterno
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 7 8
Draws 9 6
Losses 14 22
Goals Scored 1.3 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.63 2.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.73 0.68
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 9, 2025 Serie D - Group I
S. Agata vs Paterno
2:3
Nov 3, 2024 Serie D - Group I
Paterno vs S. Agata
1:0
Apr 2, 2023 Serie D - Group I
Paterno vs S. Agata
2:1
Nov 20, 2022 Serie D - Group I
S. Agata vs Paterno
1:0
Apr 24, 2022 Serie D - Group I
Paterno vs S. Agata
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

S. Agata Compare

Top Goalscorer Catalano G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pussetto A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.33
Avg xA / game 0.86

Paterno Compare

Top Goalscorer Luis Henrique
1 Goals
Assists Leader Guida A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

S. Agata 85 / 100
Paterno 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
S. Agata Paterno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick S. Agata Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

S. Agata scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Paterno conceded in 83% of 36 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

S. Agata has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Paterno
0 Goals Scored 0.25
0 Goals Conceded 2.25
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

S. Agata

(Home)
11 May
AS Acireale
2 : 2
S. Agata
04 May
Castrumfavara
0 : 2
S. Agata
27 Apr
S. Agata
1 : 3
Scafatese
17 Apr
Sancataldese
2 : 1
S. Agata
13 Apr
S. Agata
1 : 1
Pompei
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Paterno

(Away)
03 May
Nissa
4 : 1
Paterno
26 Apr
Paterno
1 : 3
Castrumfavara
19 Apr
Reggina
2 : 0
Paterno
12 Apr
Paterno
0 : 0
Milazzo
02 Apr
Sambiase
3 : 1
Paterno
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Siracusa 32 25 3 4 65:16 78
2 Reggina 32 24 5 3 65:22 77
3 Scafatese 32 20 5 7 58:26 65
4 Sambiase 32 15 9 8 40:27 54
5 Vibonese 32 15 5 12 44:31 50
6 Nissa 32 11 13 8 48:49 46
7 Paterno 32 10 14 8 26:32 44
8 USD Ragusa 32 9 11 12 37:37 38
9 Pompei 32 10 8 14 29:42 38
10 Igea Virtus 32 10 7 15 36:47 37
11 Sancataldese 32 7 14 11 28:40 35
12 Enna 32 7 14 11 21:39 35
13 AS Acireale 32 8 10 14 35:50 34
14 Castrumfavara 32 5 15 12 27:40 30
15 Licata 32 8 4 20 33:55 28
16 S. Agata 32 6 9 17 40:54 27
17 Locri 1909 32 6 6 20 32:57 24
18 Akragas 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2024/2025 (Play Out)