Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sabah Baku vs Qarabag Agdam Prediction & H2H Stats

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan Cup Bank Respublika Arena, Masazır
Sabah Baku Logo

Sabah Baku

2 - 1
FT
Qarabag Agdam Logo

Qarabag Agdam

Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Nogueira Y.
12'
Solvet S.
17'
Pokatilov S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Sabah Baku
15%
Draws
39%
Qarabag Agdam
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sabah Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Sabah Baku have won more games recently than Qarabag Agdam.
  • Sabah Baku are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Sabah Baku have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Sabah Baku, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Sabah Baku Clean Sheet 20%
Qarabag Agdam Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sabah Baku Qarabag Agdam
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 19 14
Draws 4 5
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 2.03 1.82
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 22, 2026 Azerbaijan Cup
Sabah Baku vs Qarabag Agdam
2:1
Apr 18, 2026 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Sabah Baku
0:1
Apr 3, 2026 Azerbaijan Cup
Qarabag Agdam vs Sabah Baku
2:2
Mar 1, 2026 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Sabah Baku
3:3
Dec 18, 2025 Premier League
Sabah Baku vs Qarabag Agdam
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sabah Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Simic V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mbina O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Qarabag Agdam Compare

Top Goalscorer Duran C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sabah Baku 85 / 100
Qarabag Agdam 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sabah Baku Qarabag Agdam

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sabah Baku Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sabah Baku scored in 93% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Qarabag Agdam let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

Sabah Baku has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sabah Baku VS Qarabag Agdam
2.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sabah Baku

(Home)
19 Sept
Sabah Baku
3 : 1
Imisli FK
14 Sept
Safa Baku
0 : 3
Sabah Baku
10 Sept
Manchester United
4 : 0
Sabah Baku
05 Sept
Sabah Baku
5 : 0
Zira FK
31 Aug
Araz PFK
0 : 1
Sabah Baku
Page 1 of 6

Qarabag Agdam

(Away)
18 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 0
Safa Baku
13 Sept
Zira FK
1 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
06 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 2
Araz PFK
31 Aug
SumQayit FK
0 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
27 Aug
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 4
Twente
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Sabail 0
Shamakhi 1
Goygol 0
Baku Sporting 2
Qarabag Agdam -
TBD -
Karvan 3
Sheki City 1
Lokbatan 2
Imisli FK 3
TBD -
Sabah Baku -
Gabala 5
Mingachevir 1
Gancabasar 0
Safa Baku 3
Shimal 0
Sahdag Qusar 2
Dinamo Baki 0
Turan 5
Araz PFK -
TBD -
Kapaz 6
Agstafa Gencleri 1
FC Khankendi 1
Difai Agsu 2
Zaqatala PFK 0
SumQayit FK 3
Zira FK -
TBD -
Neftci Baku 6
MOIK Baku 2
1/8-finals
Shamakhi 1
Baku Sporting 0
Qarabag Agdam 3
Karvan 0
Imisli FK 1
Sabah Baku 2
Gabala 2
Safa Baku 1
Sahdag Qusar 1
Turan 2
Araz PFK 0
Kapaz 1
Difai Agsu 1
SumQayit FK 3
Zira FK 1
Neftci Baku 0
Quarter-finals
Shamakhi 3
Qarabag Agdam 4
Sabah Baku 4
Gabala 3
Turan 3
Kapaz 0
SumQayit FK 0
Zira FK 2
Semi-finals
Qarabag Agdam 3
Sabah Baku 4
Turan 0
Zira FK 2
Final
Sabah Baku 2
Zira FK 1