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Sabah Baku vs Qarabag Agdam - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League Bank Respublika Arena, Masazır
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sabah Baku host Qarabag Agdam in the Premier League. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Qarabag Agdam have shipped 1.08 goals a game lately, while Sabah Baku have conceded 0.9 and scored 2.23. Head-to-head, Sabah Baku have won 3 to Qarabag Agdam's 0, with 2 draws. They last met on Apr 22, 2026, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.75 vs 1.38, favoring Sabah Baku. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Sabah Baku
30%
Draws
32%
Qarabag Agdam
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sabah Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Qarabag Agdam haven't matched Sabah Baku's recent run of results.
  • Sabah Baku are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Sabah Baku Clean Sheet 17%
Qarabag Agdam Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sabah Baku Qarabag Agdam
Matches Played 39 37
Wins 28 21
Draws 5 5
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 2.23 2.03
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.08
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 22, 2026 Azerbaijan Cup
Sabah Baku vs Qarabag Agdam
2:1
Apr 18, 2026 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Sabah Baku
0:1
Apr 3, 2026 Azerbaijan Cup
Qarabag Agdam vs Sabah Baku
2:2
Mar 1, 2026 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Sabah Baku
3:3
Dec 18, 2025 Premier League
Sabah Baku vs Qarabag Agdam
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sabah Baku 57 / 100
Qarabag Agdam 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sabah Baku Qarabag Agdam

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sabah Baku Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sabah Baku found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (39 games).

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Sabah Baku went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Qarabag Agdam has conceded goals in 62% of their last 37 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sabah Baku VS Qarabag Agdam
2.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sabah Baku

(Home)
17 Oct
Gabala
0 : 4
Sabah Baku
13 Oct
Sabah Baku
2 : 0
Slavia Prague
09 Oct
Neftci Baku
0 : 0
Sabah Baku
19 Sept
Sabah Baku
3 : 1
Imisli FK
14 Sept
Safa Baku
0 : 3
Sabah Baku
Page 1 of 8

Qarabag Agdam

(Away)
17 Oct
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 3
Neftci Baku
11 Oct
Imisli FK
0 : 2
Qarabag Agdam
18 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 0
Safa Baku
13 Sept
Zira FK
1 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
06 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 2
Araz PFK
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sabah Baku 7 6 1 0 18:1 19
2 Neftci Baku 8 5 2 1 21:8 17
3 Qarabag Agdam 7 5 2 0 14:7 17
4 Turan 8 4 2 2 7:5 14
5 Shamakhi 8 3 4 1 12:9 13
6 Zira FK 8 3 3 2 9:10 12
7 Kapaz 7 3 2 2 7:8 11
8 SumQayit FK 7 2 2 3 10:10 8
9 Imisli FK 8 2 1 5 7:13 7
10 Gabala 8 1 1 6 3:15 4
11 Safa Baku 8 1 0 7 4:15 3
12 Araz PFK 8 0 2 6 6:17 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2027/2028 (Main)