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Stadium Background

Sabail vs Difai Agsu

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026 ASCO Arena, Baku
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Match Events

5' Event
Haciyev R.
88' Event
Qasymov E.
90' Event
Qasymov E.

AI Match Summary

The I Liqa 2025/2026 game between Sabail and Difai Agsu finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sabail.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Sabail
30%
Draws
23%
Difai Agsu
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sabail

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Sabail carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Sabail are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular I Liqa 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Sabail have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Sabail Clean Sheet 68%
Difai Agsu Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sabail Difai Agsu
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 14 6
Draws 8 7
Losses 8 18
Goals Scored 1.57 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.97 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 0.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 23, 2026 I Liqa
Difai Agsu vs Sabail
0:4
Dec 11, 2025 I Liqa
Sabail vs Difai Agsu
3:0
Sep 18, 2025 I Liqa
Difai Agsu vs Sabail
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sabail Compare

Top Goalscorer Qasymov E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Haciyev R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22

Difai Agsu Compare

Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sabail 95 / 100
Difai Agsu 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sabail Difai Agsu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Difai Agsu conceded in 94% of 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.33 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Sabail scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Sabail stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sabail VS Difai Agsu
2.75 Goals Scored 0.63
0.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sabail

(Home)
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
15 May
Sabail
0 : 0
Sahdag Qusar
06 May
Zaqatala PFK
0 : 3
Sabail
30 Apr
Sabail
6 : 0
Cebrayil
23 Apr
Difai Agsu
0 : 4
Sabail
Page 1 of 6

Difai Agsu

(Away)
21 May
MOIK Baku
4 : 0
Difai Agsu
14 May
Shimal
0 : 1
Difai Agsu
06 May
Difai Agsu
0 : 0
Safa Baku
30 Apr
Baku Sporting
1 : 1
Difai Agsu
23 Apr
Difai Agsu
0 : 4
Sabail
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Cebrayil 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)