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Sabail vs Mingachevir - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Said Y.
28' Event
Agazada A.
61' Event
Ogunmola Olaoluwa S.

AI Match Summary

The I Liqa game between Sabail and Mingachevir finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sabail.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Sabail
20%
Draws
30%
Mingachevir
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sabail

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sabail come out ahead of Mingachevir on wins alone.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Sabail taking it.
  • Regular I Liqa form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Sabail have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Sabail Clean Sheet 20%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sabail Mingachevir
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 12
Draws 9 6
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.63 1.69
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 10, 2026 I Liqa
Sabail vs Mingachevir
2:1
May 22, 2026 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Sabail
4:1
Mar 12, 2026 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Sabail
0:1
Sep 12, 2025 I Liqa
Sabail vs Mingachevir
2:0
Mar 3, 2017 I Liqa
Sabail vs Mingachevir
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sabail Compare

Top Goalscorer Said Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Agazada A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Mingachevir Compare

Top Goalscorer Ogunmola Olaoluwa S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sabail 85 / 100
Mingachevir 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sabail Mingachevir

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sabail Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sabail found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Mingachevir let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Sabail has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sabail VS Mingachevir
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Sabail

(Home)
05 Nov
Sabail
2 : 2
Gancabasar
27 Oct
Sabail
2 : 3
Zira FK
21 Oct
Sahdag Qusar
1 : 0
Sabail
15 Oct
Zaqatala PFK
1 : 3
Sabail
08 Oct
Sabail
1 : 1
Karvan
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Mingachevir

(Away)
27 Oct
Gabala
3 : 0
Mingachevir
21 Oct
FC Khankendi
0 : 1
Mingachevir
15 Oct
Mingachevir
1 : 4
Shimal
09 Oct
MOIK Baku
3 : 0
Mingachevir
17 Sept
Mingachevir
0 : 3
Gancabasar
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gancabasar 7 5 1 1 19:6 16
2 Sahdag Qusar 6 5 0 1 14:2 15
3 MOIK Baku 7 4 2 1 13:5 14
4 Karvan 7 4 1 2 14:8 13
5 Sabail 7 3 3 1 10:7 12
6 Shimal 7 2 2 3 14:15 8
7 FC Khankendi 7 1 3 3 5:8 6
8 Zaqatala PFK 7 1 2 4 7:22 5
9 Mingachevir 6 1 1 4 5:14 4
10 Baku Sporting 7 0 1 6 4:18 1
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa (Relegation)