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Stadium Background

Sabail vs Shimal

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026 ASCO Arena, Baku
Sabail Logo

Sabail

4 - 0
FT
Shimal Logo

Shimal

Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Quliyev K.
58' Event
Quliyev K.
(Penalty)
74' Event
Paulinho
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Sabail in this I Liqa 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sabail.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Sabail
30%
Draws
33%
Shimal
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sabail

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Sabail have won more games recently than Shimal.
  • Model gives Sabail a 37% chance of winning this.
  • Regular I Liqa 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Sabail Clean Sheet 68%
Shimal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sabail Shimal
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 15 6
Draws 9 6
Losses 6 19
Goals Scored 1.6 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.8 2.23
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2026 I Liqa
Sabail vs Shimal
4:0
Dec 24, 2025 I Liqa
Sabail vs Shimal
3:4
Oct 2, 2025 I Liqa
Shimal vs Sabail
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sabail Compare

Top Goalscorer Quliyev K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Paulinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Shimal Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sabail 77 / 100
Shimal 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sabail Shimal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sabail Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shimal let in goals in 87% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.67 goals.

Sabail's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Sabail went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sabail VS Shimal
2.5 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sabail

(Home)
17 Sept
Baku Sporting
0 : 1
Sabail
10 Sept
Sabail
2 : 1
Mingachevir
03 Sept
FC Khankendi
1 : 1
Sabail
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
15 May
Sabail
0 : 0
Sahdag Qusar
Page 1 of 6

Shimal

(Away)
17 Sept
Shimal
1 : 4
Sahdag Qusar
11 Sept
MOIK Baku
1 : 1
Shimal
04 Sept
Shimal
1 : 2
Gancabasar
27 May
Shimal
2 : 1
Lokbatan
21 May
Gancabasar
2 : 3
Shimal
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Gancabasar 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)