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Stadium Background

Sacramento Republic vs El Farolito

USA USA

US Open Cup 2025 Heart Health Park
Sacramento Republic Logo

Sacramento Republic

1 - 0
FT
El Farolito Logo

El Farolito

Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Djedje R.
29' Event
Herrera J.
Assist: Lopez R.
40'
Perez F. J. S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Sacramento Republic host El Farolito in the US Open Cup 2025. Form suggests where the edge lies here. El Farolito have shipped 2 goals a game lately, while Sacramento Republic have conceded 0.63 and scored 1.38. Past meetings favor Sacramento Republic slightly — 2-0-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 19, 2026, ending 2:0. Model xG sits at 1.69 vs 0.81, favoring Sacramento Republic. Sacramento Republic in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Sacramento Republic
33%
Draws
27%
El Farolito
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Sacramento Republic

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Sacramento Republic has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to El Farolito.
  • Model forecasts a 40% win probability edge for Sacramento Republic.
  • Cup tournament structure in US Open Cup 2025 increases high-stakes performance focus.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Sacramento Republic Clean Sheet 20%
El Farolito Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sacramento Republic El Farolito
Matches Played 28 12
Wins 13 6
Draws 5 0
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.38 0
Goals Conceded 0.63 2
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2026 US Open Cup
Sacramento Republic vs El Farolito
2:0
Apr 17, 2025 US Open Cup
Sacramento Republic vs El Farolito
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sacramento Republic Compare

Top Goalscorer Herrera J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

El Farolito Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sacramento Republic 40 / 100
El Farolito 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sacramento Republic El Farolito

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sacramento Republic scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

El Farolito let in goals in 92% of their last 12 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Sacramento Republic went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

El Farolito lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sacramento Republic VS El Farolito
1.38 Goals Scored 0
0.63 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/128-finals
Louisville City-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
West Chester United2
Loudoun United3
Richmond Kickers1
Virginia Dream3
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Minnesota United-
St. Louis City-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Sporting Kansas City II1
Menace2
Flatirons1
Union Omaha2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
San Antonio FC-
Hartford Athletic3
New York Shockers0
Portland Hearts of Pine4
Faialense0
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Rhode Island-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
New England Revolution-
Chicago Fire-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Detroit City-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Motown0
Westchester SC1
FC Cincinnati 20
New York Pancyprian1
Tacoma Defiance3
Washington AC1
Ballard0
Spokane Velocity1
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Oakland Roots-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Portland Timbers-
Sacramento Republic-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Monterey Bay4
International San Francisco0
Real Monarchs1
El Farolito3
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
San Jose Earthquakes-
Forward Madison5
Duluth FC1
Tulsa Athletic0
FC Tulsa1
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Phoenix Rising-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Houston Dynamo-
Austin FC-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
New Mexico-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Ventura County7
Laguna United0
El Paso Locomotive5
Harpos1
Philadelphia Union-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Indy Eleven-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Inter Miami II4
Miami United2
Miami FC4
Naples United1
Columbus Crew 24
NY Renegades1
Lexington5
Southern Indiana0
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Pittsburgh Riverhounds-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
New York City-
Colorado Springs-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Asheville City0
Greenville Triumph1
Appalachian FC0
One Knoxville3
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
New York Red Bulls-
FC Dallas-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
AV Alta FC3
Ventura1
Los Angeles FC 27
Arizona FC1
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Orange County SC-
Sarasota Paradise1
FC Naples2
Little Rock Rangers1
Birmingham Legion0
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Tampa Bay-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Orlando City-
Nashville SC-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Las Vegas Lights-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Chattanooga1
Corpus Christi FC0
New Jersey Alliance2
Chattanooga Red Wolves3
Long Island2
Charlotte Independence3
Carolina Core4
Soda City2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
North Carolina FC-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Charlotte FC-
DC United-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Charleston-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
South Georgia Tormenta3
Harbor City0
Texoma FC1
Foro2
1/64-finals
Louisville City-
TBD-
Loudoun United4
Virginia Dream2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Minnesota United-
St. Louis City-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Menace1
Union Omaha2
TBD-
San Antonio FC-
Hartford Athletic1
Portland Hearts of Pine2
TBD-
Rhode Island-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
New England Revolution-
Chicago Fire-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Detroit City-
TBD-
Westchester SC3
New York Pancyprian2
Tacoma Defiance2
Spokane Velocity1
TBD-
Oakland Roots-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Portland Timbers-
Sacramento Republic-
TBD-
Monterey Bay1
El Farolito2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
San Jose Earthquakes-
Forward Madison1
FC Tulsa3
TBD-
Phoenix Rising-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Houston Dynamo-
Austin FC-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
New Mexico-
TBD-
Ventura County0
El Paso Locomotive3
Philadelphia Union-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Indy Eleven-
TBD-
Inter Miami II0
Miami FC1
Columbus Crew 23
Lexington0
TBD-
Pittsburgh Riverhounds-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
New York City-
Colorado Springs-
TBD-
Greenville Triumph1
One Knoxville3
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
New York Red Bulls-
FC Dallas-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
AV Alta FC2
Los Angeles FC 21
TBD-
Orange County SC-
FC Naples3
Little Rock Rangers0
TBD-
Tampa Bay-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Orlando City-
Nashville SC-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Las Vegas Lights-
TBD-
Chattanooga1
Chattanooga Red Wolves2
Charlotte Independence2
Carolina Core1
TBD-
North Carolina FC-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Charlotte FC-
DC United-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Charleston-
TBD-
South Georgia Tormenta3
Foro2
1/32-finals
Louisville City2
Loudoun United1
TBD-
Minnesota United-
St. Louis City-
TBD-
Union Omaha1
San Antonio FC0
Portland Hearts of Pine1
Rhode Island2
TBD-
New England Revolution-
Chicago Fire-
TBD-
Detroit City3
Westchester SC1
Tacoma Defiance2
Oakland Roots1
TBD-
Portland Timbers-
Sacramento Republic1
El Farolito0
TBD-
San Jose Earthquakes-
FC Tulsa1
Phoenix Rising2
TBD-
Houston Dynamo-
Austin FC-
TBD-
New Mexico2
El Paso Locomotive3
Philadelphia Union-
TBD-
Indy Eleven1
Miami FC0
Columbus Crew 20
Pittsburgh Riverhounds1
TBD-
New York City-
Colorado Springs3
One Knoxville2
TBD-
New York Red Bulls-
FC Dallas-
TBD-
AV Alta FC3
Orange County SC2
FC Naples1
Tampa Bay2
TBD-
Orlando City-
Nashville SC-
TBD-
Las Vegas Lights2
Chattanooga Red Wolves3
Charlotte Independence1
North Carolina FC3
TBD-
Charlotte FC-
DC United-
TBD-
Charleston4
South Georgia Tormenta0
1/16-finals
Louisville City0
Minnesota United1
St. Louis City2
Union Omaha0
Rhode Island1
New England Revolution2
Chicago Fire4
Detroit City0
Tacoma Defiance2
Portland Timbers3
Sacramento Republic1
San Jose Earthquakes2
Phoenix Rising1
Houston Dynamo4
Austin FC3
El Paso Locomotive2
Philadelphia Union2
Indy Eleven1
Pittsburgh Riverhounds1
New York City0
Colorado Springs1
New York Red Bulls4
FC Dallas3
AV Alta FC1
Tampa Bay0
Orlando City5
Nashville SC1
Chattanooga Red Wolves0
North Carolina FC1
Charlotte FC4
DC United2
Charleston0
1/8-finals
Minnesota United3
St. Louis City2
New England Revolution1
Chicago Fire3
Portland Timbers0
San Jose Earthquakes1
Houston Dynamo1
Austin FC3
Philadelphia Union4
Pittsburgh Riverhounds1
New York Red Bulls3
FC Dallas2
Orlando City2
Nashville SC3
Charlotte FC3
DC United4
Quarter-finals
Minnesota United3
Chicago Fire1
San Jose Earthquakes2
Austin FC3
Philadelphia Union3
New York Red Bulls2
Nashville SC5
DC United2
Semi-finals
Minnesota United1
Austin FC2
Philadelphia Union1
Nashville SC3
Final
Austin FC1
Nashville SC2