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Safa Baku vs Cebrayil

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Zamanov E.

AI Match Summary

The I Liqa game between Safa Baku and Cebrayil finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Safa Baku.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Safa Baku
6%
Draws
4%
Cebrayil
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Safa Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Cebrayil haven't matched Safa Baku's recent run of results.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Safa Baku taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Safa Baku have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Safa Baku Clean Sheet 20%
Cebrayil Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Safa Baku Cebrayil
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 8
Draws 9 4
Losses 4 18
Goals Scored 1.25 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.75 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 I Liqa
Safa Baku vs Cebrayil
1:0
Dec 19, 2025 I Liqa
Cebrayil vs Safa Baku
0:1
Oct 28, 2025 Azerbaijan Cup
Cebrayil vs Safa Baku
0:3
Sep 24, 2025 I Liqa
Safa Baku vs Cebrayil
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Safa Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Zamanov E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Cebrayil Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Safa Baku 85 / 100
Cebrayil 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Safa Baku Cebrayil

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Safa Baku scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Cebrayil conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Safa Baku went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Safa Baku VS Cebrayil
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 2
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Safa Baku27169252:2157
2Mingachevir27156655:2751
3Sabail27148546:2150
4Baku Sporting271310440:2349
5Sahdag Qusar27127836:2743
6MOIK Baku27961233:4033
7Zaqatala PFK27841527:4428
8Cebrayil27731740:5624
9Shimal27551723:6120
10Difai Agsu27461728:6018