Sport Picks

Azerbaijan

I Liqa

Match Events

55'

Ismayilov U.

58'

Quliyev T.

74'

Aliyev N.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Safa Baku host MOIK Baku in the I Liqa. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. MOIK Baku have shipped 1.63 goals a game lately, while Safa Baku have conceded 0.75 and scored 1.25. Head-to-head, Safa Baku have won 3 to MOIK Baku's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 22, 2026, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 1.44 vs 1.00, favoring Safa Baku. Safa Baku in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%

Safa Baku

22%

Draws

18%

MOIK Baku

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Safa Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence

Safa Baku has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to MOIK Baku.
Model forecasts a 60% win probability edge for Safa Baku.
League standings and seasonal metrics in I Liqa provide steady trend data.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%

Safa Baku Clean Sheet 20%

MOIK Baku Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Safa Baku	MOIK Baku
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	17	10
Draws	9	7
Losses	4	14
Goals Scored	1.25	1.25
Goals Conceded	0.75	1.63
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 22, 2026 I Liqa

Safa Baku vs MOIK Baku

Possession: 59% - 49% Cards: 1 - 1

3:0

Dec 25, 2025 I Liqa

MOIK Baku vs Safa Baku

Possession: 54% - 55% Cards: 0 - 3

0:2

Oct 2, 2025 I Liqa

Safa Baku vs MOIK Baku

Possession: 59% - 46% Cards: 3 - 1

4:1

May 3, 2005 Premier League

Safa Baku vs MOIK Baku

Possession: 59% - 49% Cards: 0 - 3

0:3

Dec 4, 2004 Premier League

MOIK Baku vs Safa Baku

Possession: 50% - 59% Cards: 4 - 3

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Safa Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Ismayilov U.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Quliyev T.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

MOIK Baku Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Safa Baku 58 / 100

MOIK Baku 18 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Safa Baku MOIK Baku

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAF Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Safa Baku scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

MOIK Baku let in goals in 84% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Safa Baku went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

MOIK Baku lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Safa Baku VS MOIK Baku

1.25 Goals Scored 1.25

0.75 Goals Conceded 1.63

50% Over 1.5 88%

38% Over 2.5 75%

13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Safa Baku	27	16	9	2	52:21	57
2	Mingachevir	27	15	6	6	55:27	51
3	Sabail	27	14	8	5	46:21	50
4	Baku Sporting	27	13	10	4	40:23	49
5	Sahdag Qusar	27	12	7	8	36:27	43
6	MOIK Baku	27	9	6	12	33:40	33
7	Zaqatala PFK	27	8	4	15	27:44	28
8	Cebrayil	27	7	3	17	40:56	24
9	Shimal	27	5	5	17	23:61	20
10	Difai Agsu	27	4	6	17	28:60	18