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Safa vs Al-Mabarrah

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Salloum A.
Assist: Camara T.
35' Event
Koita M.
Assist: Camara T.
38' Event
Dwek A.
Assist: Hayek K.

AI Match Summary

Safa in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Safa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Safa
20%
Draws
7%
Al-Mabarrah
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Safa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Safa lately — more wins on the board than Al-Mabarrah.
  • Model gives Safa a 73% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Safa here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Safa Clean Sheet 68%
Al-Mabarrah Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Safa Al-Mabarrah
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 7
Draws 5 9
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.43 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.07 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 3, 2026 Premier League
Safa vs Al-Mabarrah
4:0
Dec 25, 2025 Premier League
Al-Mabarrah vs Safa
1:0
Jan 31, 2014 Premier League
Safa vs Al-Mabarrah
3:1
Dec 8, 2013 Premier League
Al-Mabarrah vs Safa
2:6
Apr 6, 2013 Lebanese Cup
Safa vs Al-Mabarrah
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Safa Compare

Top Goalscorer Salloum A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Koita M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Al-Mabarrah Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Safa 95 / 100
Al-Mabarrah 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Safa Al-Mabarrah

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Safa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Safa scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Al-Mabarrah let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Safa has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Safa VS Al-Mabarrah
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Safa

(Home)
03 Jul
Safa
4 : 0
Al-Mabarrah
28 Jun
Jwayya SC
1 : 1
Safa
24 Jun
Al Ahed
4 : 1
Safa
20 Jun
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
2 : 4
Safa
12 Jun
Al Sahel
0 : 1
Safa
Page 1 of 6

Al-Mabarrah

(Away)
03 Jul
Safa
4 : 0
Al-Mabarrah
29 Jun
Al-Mabarrah
0 : 7
Al Ansar
25 Jun
Al Hikma
4 : 2
Al-Mabarrah
21 Jun
Nejmeh SC
5 : 0
Al-Mabarrah
16 Jun
Tadamon
1 : 1
Al-Mabarrah
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ansar 21 17 2 2 53:9 53
2 Nejmeh SC 21 14 4 3 42:10 46
3 Al Ahed 21 13 1 7 34:22 40
4 Jwayya SC 21 11 5 5 31:14 38
5 Safa 21 11 3 7 30:17 36
6 Al Hikma 21 9 3 9 29:27 30
7 Al Sahel 21 7 6 8 22:21 27
8 Al-Mabarrah 21 5 7 9 12:36 22
9 Al Riyadi Abbasiyah 21 5 5 11 16:30 20
10 Tadamon 21 3 8 10 12:26 17
11 Racing 21 0 1 20 4:61 1
12 Bourj 11 3 1 7 8:20 10
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Main)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)