Sport Picks
Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Japan
J.League Cup Ekimae Real Estate Stadium, Tosu 
AI Match Summary
A one-off knockout match in the J.League Cup. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Sagan Tosu at 1.59 goals for, 1.04 against; Avispa Fukuoka at 1.32 for, 1.43 against. Head-to-head, Sagan Tosu have won 0 to Avispa Fukuoka's 2, with 3 draws. They last met on Sep 28, 2024, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 1.06, favoring Sagan Tosu. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
15%
49%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Avispa Fukuoka
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Sagan Tosu carry the better recent record into this one.
- 42% — that's where the model lands on Sagan Tosu taking it.
- Sagan Tosu have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Avispa Fukuoka, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Sagan Tosu Clean Sheet 20%
Avispa Fukuoka Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sagan Tosu | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 28 |
| Wins | 14 | 11 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 11 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.59 | 1.32 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.04 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 28, 2024 J1 League
Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka
0:0
Jun 16, 2024 J1 League
Avispa Fukuoka vs Sagan Tosu
2:0
Aug 6, 2023 J1 League
Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka
0:1
May 14, 2023 J1 League
Avispa Fukuoka vs Sagan Tosu
0:0
Aug 26, 2022 J1 League
Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka
1:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sagan Tosu 42 / 100
Avispa Fukuoka 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sagan Tosu Avispa Fukuoka
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Avispa Fukuoka conceded in 86% of 28 recent games.
Sagan Tosu found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (27 games).
Avispa Fukuoka's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Sagan Tosu VS Avispa Fukuoka
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Sagan Tosu
(Home) 04 Oct
Blaublitz
1 : 0 Sagan Tosu
29 Sept
Sagan Tosu
2 : 1 Verdy
26 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
2 : 0 Sagan Tosu
23 Sept
Vissel Kobe
1 : 0 Sagan Tosu
19 Sept
Sagan Tosu
1 : 3 Iwaki
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29 Sept
Sagan Tosu
2 : 1 Verdy
19 Sept
Sagan Tosu
1 : 3 Iwaki
05 Sept
Sagan Tosu
2 : 0 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
26 Aug
Sagan Tosu
4 : 0 Toyama
22 Aug
Sagan Tosu
1 : 3 Tochigi City
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Avispa Fukuoka
(Away) 07 Oct
Avispa Fukuoka
0 : 1 Yokohama FC
29 Sept
FC Osaka
1 : 2 Avispa Fukuoka
19 Sept
Avispa Fukuoka
0 : 1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
12 Sept
Shimizu S-Pulse
1 : 0 Avispa Fukuoka
05 Sept
Avispa Fukuoka
1 : 1 Mito
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29 Sept
FC Osaka
1 : 2 Avispa Fukuoka
12 Sept
Shimizu S-Pulse
1 : 0 Avispa Fukuoka
29 Aug
Kyoto
2 : 1 Avispa Fukuoka
22 Aug
Kashima Antlers
3 : 2 Avispa Fukuoka
06 Jun
Chiba
1 : 2 Avispa Fukuoka
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2
Tochigi City 0
Matsumoto Yamaga 1
Albirex Niigata 0
Shimizu S-Pulse 2
Kanazawa 0
Yokohama F. Marinos 2
Montedio Yamagata 1
Urawa Reds 3
Toyama 2
Yokohama FC 2
Gifu 1
Okayama 2
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Nagoya Grampus 3
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Kawasaki Frontale 1
Kumamoto 0
Chiba 2
Iwata 4
Avispa Fukuoka 2
FC Osaka 1
Verdy 1
Sagan Tosu 2
Cerezo Osaka 2
Fujieda MYFC 1
V-Varen Nagasaki 0
Gainare Tottori 2
FC Tokyo 2
Ehime 0
Mito 7
Fukushima United 0
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
1/16-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
Matsumoto Yamaga -
Shimizu S-Pulse -
Yokohama F. Marinos -
Urawa Reds -
Yokohama FC -
Okayama -
Nagoya Grampus -
Kawasaki Frontale -
Iwata -
Avispa Fukuoka -
Sagan Tosu -
Cerezo Osaka -
Gainare Tottori -
FC Tokyo -
Mito -
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
1/8-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Machida Zelvia 1
Kyoto 0
Kashiwa Reysol 5
Gamba Osaka 4
1/64-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
TBD -
Vanraure 0
Tochigi City 2
Matsumoto Yamaga 4
Shonan Bellmare 3
Thespakusatsu Gunma 1
Albirex Niigata 2
Shimizu S-Pulse -
TBD -
Kanazawa 2
Imabari 1
Yokohama F. Marinos -
TBD -
Tochigi SC 0
Montedio Yamagata 1
Urawa Reds -
TBD -
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1
Toyama 2
Ryukyu 2
Yokohama FC 3
Gifu 1
Tokushima 0
Okayama -
TBD -
Kagoshima United 0
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Nagoya Grampus -
TBD -
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Iwaki 0
Kawasaki Frontale -
TBD -
Kumamoto 2
Oita Trinita 0
Kamatamare Sanuki 0
Chiba 2
SC Sagamihara 0
Iwata 3
Avispa Fukuoka -
TBD -
FC Osaka 3
Kofu 0
Reilac Shiga 0
Verdy 1
Nara Club 1
Sagan Tosu 2
Cerezo Osaka -
TBD -
Renofa Yamaguchi 0
Fujieda MYFC 2
Kochi United 0
V-Varen Nagasaki 1
Gainare Tottori 3
Omiya Ardija 1
FC Tokyo -
TBD -
Ehime 1
Blaublitz 0
Nagano Parceiro 0
Mito 1
Fukushima United 4
Vegalta Sendai 3
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
