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Sagan Tosu vs Iwaki Prediction & H2H Stats

Japan Japan

J2 League Ekimae Real Estate Stadium, Tosu
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Match Events

9'
Yamaguchi D.
31'
Nakajima S.
46' Event
Takahashi Y.

AI Match Summary

Iwaki in this J2 League matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Iwaki.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Sagan Tosu
15%
Draws
57%
Iwaki
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Iwaki

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Iwaki haven't matched Sagan Tosu's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular J2 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Sagan Tosu Clean Sheet 19%
Iwaki Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sagan Tosu Iwaki
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 16 15
Draws 2 0
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.64 1.43
Goals Conceded 0.96 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 J2 League
Sagan Tosu vs Iwaki
1:3
Jun 28, 2025 J2 League
Sagan Tosu vs Iwaki
1:0
Mar 9, 2025 J2 League
Iwaki vs Sagan Tosu
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sagan Tosu Compare

Top Goalscorer Shiohama R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Iwaki Compare

Top Goalscorer Takahashi Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fukaminato S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sagan Tosu 32 / 100
Iwaki 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sagan Tosu Iwaki

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sagan Tosu's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Iwaki conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.33 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Iwaki registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sagan Tosu VS Iwaki
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sagan Tosu

(Home)
29 Sept
Sagan Tosu
2 : 1
Verdy
26 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
2 : 0
Sagan Tosu
23 Sept
Vissel Kobe
1 : 0
Sagan Tosu
19 Sept
Sagan Tosu
1 : 3
Iwaki
12 Sept
Imabari
1 : 0
Sagan Tosu
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Iwaki

(Away)
26 Sept
Iwaki
0 : 2
Vegalta Sendai
19 Sept
Sagan Tosu
1 : 3
Iwaki
12 Sept
Iwaki
2 : 0
Yokohama FC
05 Sept
Tokushima
1 : 0
Iwaki
02 Sept
Giravanz Kitakyushu
1 : 0
Iwaki
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vegalta Sendai 8 5 2 1 15:7 17
2 Omiya Ardija 8 4 4 0 16:7 16
3 Albirex Niigata 8 5 1 2 11:12 16
4 Shonan Bellmare 8 4 3 1 9:7 15
5 Toyama 8 4 2 2 16:8 14
6 Yokohama FC 8 4 2 2 16:11 14
7 Tokushima 8 4 1 3 8:8 13
8 Montedio Yamagata 8 4 0 4 10:6 12
9 Fujieda MYFC 8 3 3 2 12:9 12
10 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 8 3 2 3 12:12 11
11 Tochigi City 8 3 1 4 14:13 10
12 Blaublitz 8 2 4 2 11:10 10
13 Iwata 8 3 1 4 10:11 10
14 Vanraure 8 3 1 4 5:12 10
15 Iwaki 8 3 0 5 11:15 9
16 Oita Trinita 8 1 5 2 7:6 8
17 Sagan Tosu 8 2 2 4 8:11 8
18 Kofu 8 2 1 5 6:15 7
19 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 8 1 2 5 10:17 5
20 Imabari 8 1 1 6 7:17 4
Promotion - J1 League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - J2 League (Promotion)
Relegation - J3 League 2027/2028 (Main)