Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sagan Tosu vs Reilac Shiga

Japan Japan

J2/J3 League Ekimae Real Estate Stadium, Tosu
Sagan Tosu Logo

Sagan Tosu

2 - 0
FT
Reilac Shiga Logo

Reilac Shiga

Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Hyon R.
51'
Miyagi M.
59'
Sub
Tabei Y. In: Hojo S.
Out: Tabei Y.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The J2/J3 League game between Sagan Tosu and Reilac Shiga finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sagan Tosu.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Sagan Tosu
15%
Draws
57%
Reilac Shiga
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Reilac Shiga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Reilac Shiga haven't matched Sagan Tosu's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Reilac Shiga a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Sagan Tosu Clean Sheet 16%
Reilac Shiga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sagan Tosu Reilac Shiga
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 13
Draws 2 0
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.52 1.14
Goals Conceded 1 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 J2/J3 League
Sagan Tosu vs Reilac Shiga
2:0
Mar 22, 2026 J2/J3 League
Reilac Shiga vs Sagan Tosu
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sagan Tosu Compare

Top Goalscorer Hyon R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nishizawa K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Reilac Shiga Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sagan Tosu 28 / 100
Reilac Shiga 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sagan Tosu Reilac Shiga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Reilac Shiga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sagan Tosu found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Reilac Shiga let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Reilac Shiga's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Sagan Tosu VS Reilac Shiga
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sagan Tosu

(Home)
26 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
2 : 0
Sagan Tosu
23 Sept
Vissel Kobe
1 : 0
Sagan Tosu
19 Sept
Sagan Tosu
1 : 3
Iwaki
12 Sept
Imabari
1 : 0
Sagan Tosu
05 Sept
Sagan Tosu
2 : 0
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Page 1 of 6

Reilac Shiga

(Away)
26 Sept
Nara Club
4 : 1
Reilac Shiga
20 Sept
Reilac Shiga
3 : 0
Ryukyu
13 Sept
Reilac Shiga
1 : 2
Kagoshima United
09 Sept
Reilac Shiga
0 : 1
Verdy
05 Sept
Kamatamare Sanuki
0 : 3
Reilac Shiga
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vegalta Sendai 18 16 0 2 37:15 43
2 Blaublitz 18 11 0 7 23:16 35
3 Shonan Bellmare 18 11 0 7 28:20 31
4 Yokohama FC 18 10 0 8 36:28 29
5 SC Sagamihara 18 9 0 9 33:36 28
6 Thespakusatsu Gunma 18 7 0 11 27:39 23
7 Montedio Yamagata 18 8 0 10 22:25 22
8 Tochigi City 18 7 0 11 22:35 21
9 Vanraure 17 5 0 12 16:23 18
10 Tochigi SC 17 5 0 12 24:31 17
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kofu 17 11 0 6 20:12 33
2 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 18 11 0 7 28:22 31
3 Iwaki 18 11 0 7 26:20 31
4 Omiya Ardija 18 10 0 8 39:29 30
5 Fujieda MYFC 18 9 0 9 24:23 30
6 Gifu 17 9 0 8 23:25 27
7 Matsumoto Yamaga 18 8 0 10 33:25 26
8 Iwata 18 9 0 9 20:25 25
9 Fukushima United 18 6 0 12 30:43 18
10 Nagano Parceiro 18 5 0 13 17:36 16
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Toyama 18 13 0 5 40:26 38
2 Albirex Niigata 18 12 0 6 24:19 35
3 Tokushima 18 11 0 7 38:23 32
4 Kochi United 18 10 0 8 25:23 30
5 Ehime 18 9 0 9 26:20 28
6 Kanazawa 18 10 0 8 20:23 27
7 Nara Club 18 7 0 11 27:36 21
8 FC Osaka 18 6 0 12 18:23 20
9 Imabari 18 6 0 12 15:21 20
10 Kamatamare Sanuki 18 6 0 12 15:34 19
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 18 15 0 3 35:13 47
2 Kagoshima United 18 12 0 6 27:16 33
3 Sagan Tosu 18 10 0 8 26:18 32
4 Renofa Yamaguchi 18 10 0 8 27:24 29
5 Kumamoto 18 9 0 9 21:21 27
6 Gainare Tottori 18 10 0 8 24:25 27
7 Oita Trinita 18 7 0 11 19:20 22
8 Reilac Shiga 18 7 0 11 16:29 21
9 Ryukyu 18 6 0 12 17:28 17
10 Giravanz Kitakyushu 18 4 0 14 17:35 15
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)