Sport Picks

Japan

J2/J3 League Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Match Events

49'

Matsumoto N.

57'

Sub

Noyori K. In: Kobayashi S.

Out: Noyori K.

57'

Sub

Fujioka K. In: Yamamoto S.

Out: Fujioka K.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Sagan Tosu play Renofa Yamaguchi in the J2/J3 League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sagan Tosu averaged 1.75 goals scored and 0.63 conceded. Renofa Yamaguchi averaged 1.88 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Sagan Tosu won 1, Renofa Yamaguchi won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 16, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Sagan Tosu and 1.25 for Renofa Yamaguchi. This points to a Renofa Yamaguchi double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Sagan Tosu

20%

Draws

38%

Renofa Yamaguchi

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sagan Tosu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence

Renofa Yamaguchi demonstrates higher offensive output (1.88 avg goals) than Sagan Tosu (1.75 avg goals).
Model forecasts a 42% win probability edge for Sagan Tosu.
League standings and seasonal metrics in J2/J3 League provide steady trend data.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%

Sagan Tosu Clean Sheet 19%

Renofa Yamaguchi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Sagan Tosu	Renofa Yamaguchi
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	15	15
Draws	3	2
Losses	12	13
Goals Scored	1.75	1.88
Goals Conceded	0.63	1.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.75	1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.63	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 J2/J3 League

Sagan Tosu vs Renofa Yamaguchi

Possession: 43% - 57% Cards: 3 - 2

1:2

Mar 7, 2026 J2/J3 League

Renofa Yamaguchi vs Sagan Tosu

Possession: 54% - 44% Cards: 0 - 1

2:0

Oct 5, 2025 J2 League

Renofa Yamaguchi vs Sagan Tosu

Possession: 44% - 52% Cards: 3 - 2

1:2

Apr 19, 2025 J2 League

Sagan Tosu vs Renofa Yamaguchi

Possession: 53% - 48% Cards: 3 - 0

2:2

Aug 21, 2024 Emperors Cup

Sagan Tosu vs Renofa Yamaguchi

Possession: 40% - 44% Cards: 1 - 3

0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sagan Tosu Compare

Top Goalscorer Matsumoto N.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.88

Renofa Yamaguchi Compare

Top Goalscorer Nakashima K.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.71

Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sagan Tosu 42 / 100

Renofa Yamaguchi 36 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Sagan Tosu Renofa Yamaguchi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sagan Tosu scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Renofa Yamaguchi let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Sagan Tosu went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Renofa Yamaguchi lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sagan Tosu VS Renofa Yamaguchi

1.75 Goals Scored 1.88

0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5

75% Over 1.5 88%

50% Over 2.5 75%

13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	18	16	2	37:15	43
2	Blaublitz	18	11	7	23:16	35
3	Shonan Bellmare	18	11	7	28:20	31
4	Yokohama FC	18	10	8	36:28	29
5	SC Sagamihara	18	9	9	33:36	28
6	Thespakusatsu Gunma	18	7	11	27:39	23
7	Montedio Yamagata	18	8	10	22:25	22
8	Tochigi City	18	7	11	22:35	21
9	Vanraure	17	5	12	16:23	18
10	Tochigi SC	17	5	12	24:31	17

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kofu	17	11	6	20:12	33
2	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	18	11	7	28:22	31
3	Iwaki	18	11	7	26:20	31
4	Omiya Ardija	18	10	8	39:29	30
5	Fujieda MYFC	18	9	9	24:23	30
6	Gifu	17	9	8	23:25	27
7	Matsumoto Yamaga	18	8	10	33:25	26
8	Iwata	18	9	9	20:25	25
9	Fukushima United	18	6	12	30:43	18
10	Nagano Parceiro	18	5	13	17:36	16

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Toyama	18	13	5	40:26	38
2	Albirex Niigata	18	12	6	24:19	35
3	Tokushima	18	11	7	38:23	32
4	Kochi United	18	10	8	25:23	30
5	Ehime	18	9	9	26:20	28
6	Kanazawa	18	10	8	20:23	27
7	Nara Club	18	7	11	27:36	21
8	FC Osaka	18	6	12	18:23	20
9	Imabari	18	6	12	15:21	20
10	Kamatamare Sanuki	18	6	12	15:34	19

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	18	15	3	35:13	47
2	Kagoshima United	18	12	6	27:16	33
3	Sagan Tosu	18	10	8	26:18	32
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	18	10	8	27:24	29
5	Kumamoto	18	9	9	21:21	27
6	Gainare Tottori	18	10	8	24:25	27
7	Oita Trinita	18	7	11	19:20	22
8	Reilac Shiga	18	7	11	16:29	21
9	Ryukyu	18	6	12	17:28	17
10	Giravanz Kitakyushu	18	4	14	17:35	15