Sport Picks
Match Events
45'
45'
Kamiyama K.
46'
46'
Sub
Kunitake Y. In: Sera S.
Out: Kunitake Y.
51'
51'
Sub
Matsumoto H. In: Nishiya S.
Out: Matsumoto H.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 4-0. The second leg ended 4-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
22%
20%
58%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Toyama
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Toyama's 1.93 goals per match outpaces what Sagan Tosu have produced (1.65).
- 58% — that's where the model lands on Toyama taking it.
- Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
- Historical meetings favor Sagan Tosu, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Sagan Tosu Clean Sheet 15%
Toyama Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sagan Tosu | Toyama |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 18 | 18 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 11 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.65 | 1.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.94 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 26, 2026 Emperors Cup
Sagan Tosu vs Toyama
4:0
Nov 9, 2025 J2 League
Toyama vs Sagan Tosu
3:1
Mar 23, 2025 J2 League
Sagan Tosu vs Toyama
1:0
Oct 19, 2011 J2 League
Toyama vs Sagan Tosu
0:3
Oct 10, 2011 Emperors Cup
Toyama vs Sagan Tosu
4:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sagan Tosu Compare
Top Goalscorer Takahashi T.
2 Goals Assists Leader Kamiyama K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Toyama Compare
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sagan Tosu 19 / 100
Toyama 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sagan Tosu Toyama
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Toyama Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Sagan Tosu scored in 81% of their last 31 games.
Games between these two average 3.80 goals.
Toyama let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.
Sagan Tosu has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Sagan Tosu VS Toyama
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Sagan Tosu
(Home) 29 Sept
Sagan Tosu
2 : 1 Verdy
26 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
2 : 0 Sagan Tosu
23 Sept
Vissel Kobe
1 : 0 Sagan Tosu
19 Sept
Sagan Tosu
1 : 3 Iwaki
12 Sept
Imabari
1 : 0 Sagan Tosu
Page 1 of 7
29 Sept
Sagan Tosu
2 : 1 Verdy
19 Sept
Sagan Tosu
1 : 3 Iwaki
05 Sept
Sagan Tosu
2 : 0 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
26 Aug
Sagan Tosu
4 : 0 Toyama
22 Aug
Sagan Tosu
1 : 3 Tochigi City
Page 1 of 4
Toyama
(Away) 29 Sept
Toyama
2 : 3 Urawa Reds
26 Sept
Toyama
3 : 3 Yokohama FC
19 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
0 : 2 Toyama
12 Sept
Toyama
0 : 0 Tochigi City
06 Sept
Iwata
0 : 1 Toyama
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
0 : 2 Toyama
06 Sept
Iwata
0 : 1 Toyama
02 Sept
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
1 : 2 Toyama
26 Aug
Sagan Tosu
4 : 0 Toyama
15 Aug
Blaublitz
0 : 4 Toyama
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Kashima Antlers -
TBD -
Atletico Suzuka 2
Basara Hyogo 1
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo -
TBD -
TBD -
Kofu -
Nagoya Grampus -
TBD -
Gainare Tottori 3
Kumamoto 2
Verdy -
TBD -
Tohoku Gakuin University 1
Thespakusatsu Gunma 3
Kawasaki Frontale -
TBD -
Tochigi SC 2
Urayasu SC 0
Iwata -
TBD -
TBD -
Tegevajaro Miyazaki -
Gamba Osaka -
TBD -
Reilac Shiga 2
Japan Soccer 1
Tokushima -
TBD -
FC Tokushima 1
Kawasoe Club 0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
TBD -
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Okinawa 2
Iwaki -
TBD -
TBD -
Oita Trinita -
Okayama -
TBD -
Belugarosso Iwami 2
Nagasaki Intl University 0
Chiba -
TBD -
Arterivo Wakayama 0
Azul Claro Numazu 6
Vissel Kobe -
TBD -
Veroskronos Tsuno 3
Kamatamare Sanuki 1
Sagan Tosu -
TBD -
TBD -
Toyama -
Avispa Fukuoka -
TBD -
Verspah Oita 3
Kochi United 0
Yokohama FC -
TBD -
Ryutsu Keizai University 1
Criacao Shinjuku 2
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
Senshu University 2
Tsukuba Univ. 1
Imabari -
TBD -
TBD -
Blaublitz -
Yokohama F. Marinos -
TBD -
Fukushima United 7
Oyama 0
Mito -
TBD -
Kanazawa 1
Kyoto Sangyo 4
Urawa Reds -
TBD -
Yamanashi Gakuin 1
Tokyo International University 0
Omiya Ardija -
TBD -
TBD -
Vanraure -
Cerezo Osaka -
TBD -
Gifu 3
Toyama Shinjo 1
Albirex Niigata -
TBD -
Kagoshima United 2
Renofa Yamaguchi 1
Kyoto -
TBD -
SRC Hiroshima 1
Maruyasu Okazaki 6
Montedio Yamagata -
TBD -
TBD -
Fujieda MYFC -
Shimizu S-Pulse -
TBD -
Nara Club 1
FC Osaka 4
V-Varen Nagasaki -
TBD -
Ehime 2
International Pacific Univesity 1
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
Iwate Grulla Morioka 1
Sapporo University FC 0
Vegalta Sendai -
TBD -
TBD -
Tochigi City -
FC Tokyo -
TBD -
Nagano Parceiro 2
Fukui Utd. 1
Shonan Bellmare -
TBD -
Reinmeer Aomori 15
Akita University 0
1/32-finals
Kashima Antlers 3
Atletico Suzuka 0
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Kofu 3
Nagoya Grampus 1
Gainare Tottori 3
Verdy 4
Thespakusatsu Gunma 1
Kawasaki Frontale 3
Tochigi SC 1
Iwata 0
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1
Gamba Osaka 2
Reilac Shiga 0
Tokushima 3
FC Tokushima 0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4
Okinawa 1
Iwaki 2
Oita Trinita 0
Okayama 3
Belugarosso Iwami 0
Chiba 2
Azul Claro Numazu 1
Vissel Kobe 2
Veroskronos Tsuno 1
Sagan Tosu 4
Toyama 0
Avispa Fukuoka 1
Verspah Oita 0
Yokohama FC 3
Criacao Shinjuku 1
Kashiwa Reysol 2
Senshu University 1
Imabari 4
Blaublitz 1
Yokohama F. Marinos 1
Fukushima United 0
Mito 0
Kyoto Sangyo 2
Urawa Reds 3
Yamanashi Gakuin 0
Omiya Ardija 2
Vanraure 0
Cerezo Osaka 3
Gifu 1
Albirex Niigata 0
Kagoshima United 4
Kyoto 1
Maruyasu Okazaki 0
Montedio Yamagata 3
Fujieda MYFC 5
Shimizu S-Pulse 2
FC Osaka 1
V-Varen Nagasaki 3
Ehime 2
Machida Zelvia 3
Iwate Grulla Morioka 0
Vegalta Sendai 1
Tochigi City 2
FC Tokyo 6
Nagano Parceiro 0
Shonan Bellmare 1
Reinmeer Aomori 0
1/16-finals
Kashima Antlers 3
Kofu 1
Gainare Tottori -
Verdy -
Kawasaki Frontale -
Tegevajaro Miyazaki -
Gamba Osaka 5
Tokushima 0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
Iwaki -
Okayama -
Chiba -
Vissel Kobe 1
Sagan Tosu 0
Avispa Fukuoka -
Yokohama FC -
Kashiwa Reysol 4
Imabari 0
Yokohama F. Marinos -
Kyoto Sangyo -
Urawa Reds -
Omiya Ardija -
Cerezo Osaka -
Kagoshima United -
Kyoto 1
Fujieda MYFC 0
Shimizu S-Pulse -
V-Varen Nagasaki -
Machida Zelvia 2
Tochigi City 1
FC Tokyo -
Shonan Bellmare -
1/8-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
