Sport Picks
Sagan Tosu vs Verdy Prediction & H2H Stats
Japan
J.League Cup Ekimae Real Estate Stadium, Tosu 
Match Events
19'
19'
Morishita R.
31'
31'
Sako M.
37'
37'
Sub
Suzuki D. In: Goto H.
Out: Suzuki D.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
30%
20%
50%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Verdy
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
50%
/ Medium Confidence
- Sagan Tosu have won more games recently than Verdy.
- 50% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Sagan Tosu have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Verdy, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Sagan Tosu Clean Sheet 21%
Verdy Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sagan Tosu | Verdy |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 16 | 10 |
| Draws | 2 | 5 |
| Losses | 11 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.59 | 1.03 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.52 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 29, 2026 J.League Cup
Sagan Tosu vs Verdy
2:1
Jul 16, 2025 Emperors Cup
Verdy vs Sagan Tosu
1:0
Sep 22, 2024 J1 League
Verdy vs Sagan Tosu
2:0
May 3, 2024 J1 League
Sagan Tosu vs Verdy
0:2
Aug 21, 2011 J2 League
Verdy vs Sagan Tosu
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sagan Tosu Compare
Top Goalscorer Shiohama R.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Verdy Compare
Top Goalscorer Fujimoto K.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sagan Tosu 37 / 100
Verdy 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sagan Tosu Verdy
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Verdy Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Sagan Tosu scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.
Verdy has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Sagan Tosu stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Sagan Tosu VS Verdy
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Sagan Tosu
(Home) 29 Sept
Sagan Tosu
2 : 1 Verdy
26 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
2 : 0 Sagan Tosu
23 Sept
Vissel Kobe
1 : 0 Sagan Tosu
19 Sept
Sagan Tosu
1 : 3 Iwaki
12 Sept
Imabari
1 : 0 Sagan Tosu
Page 1 of 6
29 Sept
Sagan Tosu
2 : 1 Verdy
19 Sept
Sagan Tosu
1 : 3 Iwaki
05 Sept
Sagan Tosu
2 : 0 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
26 Aug
Sagan Tosu
4 : 0 Toyama
22 Aug
Sagan Tosu
1 : 3 Tochigi City
Page 1 of 3
Verdy
(Away) 29 Sept
Sagan Tosu
2 : 1 Verdy
19 Sept
Urawa Reds
3 : 1 Verdy
13 Sept
Verdy
1 : 1 Chiba
09 Sept
Reilac Shiga
0 : 1 Verdy
06 Sept
Cerezo Osaka
0 : 0 Verdy
Page 1 of 6
29 Sept
Sagan Tosu
2 : 1 Verdy
19 Sept
Urawa Reds
3 : 1 Verdy
09 Sept
Reilac Shiga
0 : 1 Verdy
06 Sept
Cerezo Osaka
0 : 0 Verdy
22 Aug
Okayama
0 : 0 Verdy
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2
Tochigi City 0
Matsumoto Yamaga 1
Albirex Niigata 0
Shimizu S-Pulse 2
Kanazawa 0
Yokohama F. Marinos 2
Montedio Yamagata 1
Urawa Reds 3
Toyama 2
Yokohama FC 2
Gifu 1
Okayama 2
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Nagoya Grampus 3
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Kawasaki Frontale 1
Kumamoto 0
Chiba 2
Iwata 4
Avispa Fukuoka 2
FC Osaka 1
Verdy 1
Sagan Tosu 2
Cerezo Osaka 2
Fujieda MYFC 1
V-Varen Nagasaki 0
Gainare Tottori 2
FC Tokyo 2
Ehime 0
Mito 7
Fukushima United 0
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
1/16-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
Matsumoto Yamaga -
Shimizu S-Pulse -
Yokohama F. Marinos -
Urawa Reds -
Yokohama FC -
Okayama -
Nagoya Grampus -
Kawasaki Frontale -
Iwata -
Avispa Fukuoka -
Sagan Tosu -
Cerezo Osaka -
Gainare Tottori -
FC Tokyo -
Mito -
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
1/8-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Machida Zelvia -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
Gamba Osaka -
1/64-finals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
TBD -
Vanraure 0
Tochigi City 2
Matsumoto Yamaga 4
Shonan Bellmare 3
Thespakusatsu Gunma 1
Albirex Niigata 2
Shimizu S-Pulse -
TBD -
Kanazawa 2
Imabari 1
Yokohama F. Marinos -
TBD -
Tochigi SC 0
Montedio Yamagata 1
Urawa Reds -
TBD -
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1
Toyama 2
Ryukyu 2
Yokohama FC 3
Gifu 1
Tokushima 0
Okayama -
TBD -
Kagoshima United 0
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Nagoya Grampus -
TBD -
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Iwaki 0
Kawasaki Frontale -
TBD -
Kumamoto 2
Oita Trinita 0
Kamatamare Sanuki 0
Chiba 2
SC Sagamihara 0
Iwata 3
Avispa Fukuoka -
TBD -
FC Osaka 3
Kofu 0
Reilac Shiga 0
Verdy 1
Nara Club 1
Sagan Tosu 2
Cerezo Osaka -
TBD -
Renofa Yamaguchi 0
Fujieda MYFC 2
Kochi United 0
V-Varen Nagasaki 1
Gainare Tottori 3
Omiya Ardija 1
FC Tokyo -
TBD -
Ehime 1
Blaublitz 0
Nagano Parceiro 0
Mito 1
Fukushima United 4
Vegalta Sendai 3
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kyoto -
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Gamba Osaka -
