Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sahdag Qusar vs Mingachevir

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Adjey K.
72' Event
Chipesse A.

AI Match Summary

Sahdag Qusar in this I Liqa 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sahdag Qusar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Sahdag Qusar
30%
Draws
19%
Mingachevir
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sahdag Qusar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sahdag Qusar lately — more wins on the board than Mingachevir.
  • Win probability leans Sahdag Qusar's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Sahdag Qusar Clean Sheet 68%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sahdag Qusar Mingachevir
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 14
Draws 7 7
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.4 1.87
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2026 I Liqa
Sahdag Qusar vs Mingachevir
2:0
Dec 24, 2025 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Sahdag Qusar
1:1
Oct 1, 2025 I Liqa
Sahdag Qusar vs Mingachevir
0:0
Mar 22, 2017 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Sahdag Qusar
1:0
Oct 27, 2016 I Liqa
Sahdag Qusar vs Mingachevir
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sahdag Qusar Compare

Top Goalscorer Adjey K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Chipesse A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Mingachevir Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sahdag Qusar 95 / 100
Mingachevir 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sahdag Qusar Mingachevir

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sahdag Qusar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Sahdag Qusar stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Sahdag Qusar scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Mingachevir let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Sahdag Qusar VS Mingachevir
1.13 Goals Scored 2.5
0.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 100%
13% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sahdag Qusar

(Home)
17 Sept
Shimal
1 : 4
Sahdag Qusar
09 Sept
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0
Karvan
03 Sept
MOIK Baku
0 : 1
Sahdag Qusar
22 May
Sahdag Qusar
1 : 1
Baku Sporting
15 May
Sabail
0 : 0
Sahdag Qusar
Page 1 of 6

Mingachevir

(Away)
17 Sept
Mingachevir
0 : 3
Gancabasar
10 Sept
Sabail
2 : 1
Mingachevir
04 Sept
Mingachevir
2 : 2
Zaqatala PFK
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Gancabasar 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)