Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sahdag Qusar vs Shimal

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Coulibaly A.

AI Match Summary

Sahdag Qusar in this I Liqa 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sahdag Qusar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Sahdag Qusar
30%
Draws
27%
Shimal
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sahdag Qusar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sahdag Qusar lately — more wins on the board than Shimal.
  • Model gives Sahdag Qusar a 43% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Sahdag Qusar have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Sahdag Qusar Clean Sheet 20%
Shimal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sahdag Qusar Shimal
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 6
Draws 7 5
Losses 8 19
Goals Scored 1.4 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.87 2.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.51
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs Sahdag Qusar
1:4
Apr 3, 2026 I Liqa
Sahdag Qusar vs Shimal
1:0
Feb 19, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs Sahdag Qusar
0:1
Nov 6, 2025 I Liqa
Sahdag Qusar vs Shimal
4:2
Oct 29, 2025 Azerbaijan Cup
Shimal vs Sahdag Qusar
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sahdag Qusar Compare

Top Goalscorer Coulibaly A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Shimal Compare

Avg xG / game 0.46
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sahdag Qusar 85 / 100
Shimal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sahdag Qusar Shimal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sahdag Qusar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shimal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Sahdag Qusar stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Sahdag Qusar scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Sahdag Qusar VS Shimal
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
0.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
38% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sahdag Qusar

(Home)
17 Sept
Shimal
1 : 4
Sahdag Qusar
09 Sept
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0
Karvan
03 Sept
MOIK Baku
0 : 1
Sahdag Qusar
22 May
Sahdag Qusar
1 : 1
Baku Sporting
15 May
Sabail
0 : 0
Sahdag Qusar
Page 1 of 6

Shimal

(Away)
17 Sept
Shimal
1 : 4
Sahdag Qusar
11 Sept
MOIK Baku
1 : 1
Shimal
04 Sept
Shimal
1 : 2
Gancabasar
27 May
Shimal
2 : 1
Lokbatan
21 May
Gancabasar
2 : 3
Shimal
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Gancabasar 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)