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Salam Zgharta vs Tripoli SC

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2022/2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Salam Zgharta play Tripoli SC in the Premier League 2022/2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Salam Zgharta averaged 0.6 goals scored and 1.97 conceded. Tripoli SC averaged 0.85 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Salam Zgharta won 1, Tripoli SC won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 24, 2023 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.85 for Salam Zgharta and 0.99 for Tripoli SC. This points to a Tripoli SC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Salam Zgharta
23%
Draws
53%
Tripoli SC
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Tripoli SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence
  • Salam Zgharta picked up more points recently compared to Tripoli SC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.85 vs 0.99 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Salam Zgharta Clean Sheet 23%
Tripoli SC Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 57%
Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Salam Zgharta Tripoli SC
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 4 10
Draws 6 9
Losses 20 15
Goals Scored 0.6 0.85
Goals Conceded 1.97 1.03

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 24, 2023 Premier League
Salam Zgharta vs Tripoli SC
2:1
Jan 15, 2023 Premier League
Tripoli SC vs Salam Zgharta
1:0
Oct 30, 2022 Premier League
Tripoli SC vs Salam Zgharta
1:1
Apr 7, 2021 Premier League
Salam Zgharta vs Tripoli SC
2:3
Oct 17, 2020 Premier League
Salam Zgharta vs Tripoli SC
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Salam Zgharta Compare

Top Goalscorer Calamari V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Innocent J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Tripoli SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Abu Zama S. A. S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Salam Zgharta 26 / 100
Tripoli SC 51 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Salam Zgharta Tripoli SC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tripoli SC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Tripoli SC & Under 3.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +50%
6.25
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Salam Zgharta attacking → ← attacking Tripoli SC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Salam Zgharta scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

Tripoli SC let in goals in 61% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Salam Zgharta went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Tripoli SC lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

18 Points in last 5 39
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50