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Salisbury United vs Sturt Lions FC

Australia Australia

SA State League 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

88' Event
Lesi T.

AI Match Summary

Sturt Lions FC in this SA State League 2025 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Salisbury United
17%
Draws
70%
Sturt Lions FC
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Sturt Lions FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sturt Lions FC lately — more wins on the board than Salisbury United.
  • Sturt Lions FC are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Sturt Lions FC arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Sturt Lions FC, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Sturt Lions FC here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Salisbury United Clean Sheet 10%
Sturt Lions FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Salisbury United Sturt Lions FC
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 16
Draws 4 2
Losses 17 11
Goals Scored 1.63 1.38
Goals Conceded 2.63 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.63 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2025 SA State League
Sturt Lions FC vs Salisbury United
3:1
Aug 30, 2025 SA State League
Salisbury United vs Sturt Lions FC
0:1
Aug 16, 2025 SA State League
Sturt Lions FC vs Salisbury United
4:0
May 24, 2025 SA State League
Salisbury United vs Sturt Lions FC
1:3
Jul 27, 2024 SA State League
Salisbury United vs Sturt Lions FC
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Salisbury United Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Sturt Lions FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Lesi T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Salisbury United 14 / 100
Sturt Lions FC 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Salisbury United Sturt Lions FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick STU Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Salisbury United scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Sturt Lions FC conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Salisbury United went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Salisbury United VS Sturt Lions FC
1.63 Goals Scored 1.38
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Salisbury United

(Home)
24 Jul
Eastern United
0 : 3
Salisbury United
18 Jul
Salisbury United
2 : 3
Modbury Jets
03 Jul
Adelaide Olympic
1 : 0
Salisbury United
27 Jun
Salisbury United
0 : 4
The Cove FC
20 Jun
Fulham United
2 : 2
Salisbury United
Page 1 of 6

Sturt Lions FC

(Away)
25 Jul
Adelaide Utd U23
2 : 3
Sturt Lions FC
18 Jul
West Adelaide
0 : 0
Sturt Lions FC
04 Jul
Sturt Lions FC
1 : 0
Playford Patriots
26 Jun
West Torrens Birkalla
4 : 1
Sturt Lions FC
20 Jun
Sturt Lions FC
6 : 0
Para
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Sturt Lions FC-
TBD-
Salisbury United2
Blue Eagles1
Fulham United-
TBD-
West Adelaide4
Cumberland United0
Semi-finals
Sturt Lions FC4
Salisbury United1
Fulham United1
West Adelaide3
Final
Sturt Lions FC2
West Adelaide3