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Salzburg vs Sturm Graz Prediction & H2H Stats

Austria Austria

Bundesliga Red Bull Arena, Salzburg
Our Tip

Match Events

52'
Sub
Redzic D. In: Kitano S.
Out: Redzic D.
52'
Sub
Baidoo E. In: Camara A.
Out: Baidoo E.
53'
Sub
Konate K. In: Vertessen Y.
Out: Konate K.

AI Match Summary

Salzburg in this Bundesliga matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Salzburg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Salzburg
20%
Draws
40%
Sturm Graz
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Salzburg lately — more wins on the board than Sturm Graz.
  • Model gives Salzburg a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Bundesliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Salzburg Clean Sheet 20%
Sturm Graz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Salzburg Sturm Graz
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 18 16
Draws 5 9
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 2.19 1.9
Goals Conceded 0.97 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Bundesliga
Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
3:0
May 3, 2026 Bundesliga
Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
1:1
Mar 20, 2026 Bundesliga
Sturm Graz vs Salzburg
1:1
Nov 9, 2025 Bundesliga
Sturm Graz vs Salzburg
1:1
Sep 20, 2025 Bundesliga
Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Salzburg Compare

Top Goalscorer Veratschnig N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Boma K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Sturm Graz Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Salzburg 85 / 100
Sturm Graz 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Salzburg Sturm Graz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Salzburg Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Salzburg scored in 87% of their last 31 outings.

Sturm Graz let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Salzburg has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Salzburg VS Sturm Graz
2.88 Goals Scored 1.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Salzburg

(Home)
02 Oct
Salzburg
1 : 2
BW Linz
20 Sept
Salzburg
3 : 0
Sturm Graz
17 Sept
Levski Sofia
0 : 1
Salzburg
11 Sept
Ried
1 : 1
Salzburg
06 Sept
St. Polten
0 : 3
Salzburg
Page 1 of 7

Sturm Graz

(Away)
02 Oct
Sturm Graz
3 : 1
Floridsdorfer AC Wien
20 Sept
Salzburg
3 : 0
Sturm Graz
16 Sept
Sturm Graz
0 : 0
Rennes
13 Sept
Sturm Graz
2 : 1
LASK Linz
05 Sept
ASK Voitsberg
1 : 4
Sturm Graz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rapid Vienna 7 6 0 1 21:7 18
2 Salzburg 7 5 2 0 18:4 17
3 LASK Linz 7 5 1 1 19:7 16
4 Sturm Graz 7 3 2 2 8:9 11
5 Ried 7 2 2 3 11:12 8
6 Hartberg 7 2 2 3 10:13 8
7 Tirol 7 2 2 3 9:12 8
8 A. Lustenau 7 2 2 3 8:11 8
9 Grazer AK 7 2 2 3 6:16 8
10 Austria Vienna 7 2 1 4 7:13 7
11 Wolfsberger AC 7 1 2 4 7:13 5
12 Altach 7 1 0 6 5:12 3
Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation Group)