Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sambenedettese vs Perugia Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 Stadio Comunale Riviera delle Palme, San Benedetto del Tronto
Sambenedettese Logo

Sambenedettese

0 - 1
FT
Perugia Logo

Perugia

Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Angella G.
28' Event
Tozzuolo A.
36'
Eusepi U.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Perugia in this Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Perugia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Sambenedettese
15%
Draws
73%
Perugia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Perugia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

12% / Low Confidence
  • Sambenedettese haven't matched Perugia's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Sambenedettese's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Sambenedettese Clean Sheet 68%
Perugia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sambenedettese Perugia
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 6 9
Draws 8 10
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.36 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Serie C - Group B
Sambenedettese vs Perugia
0:1
Sep 23, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Perugia vs Sambenedettese
1:2
Mar 2, 2021 Serie C - Group B
Perugia vs Sambenedettese
1:1
Nov 8, 2020 Serie C - Group B
Sambenedettese vs Perugia
1:1
Feb 24, 2008 Lega Pro C1/B
Perugia vs Sambenedettese
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sambenedettese Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Perugia Compare

Top Goalscorer Tozzuolo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sambenedettese 50 / 100
Perugia 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sambenedettese Perugia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sambenedettese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Perugia has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Sambenedettese's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Perugia lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sambenedettese VS Perugia
1.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sambenedettese

(Home)
26 Sept
Sambenedettese
1 : 2
Campobasso
21 Sept
Pianese
1 : 1
Sambenedettese
16 Sept
Sambenedettese
2 : 3
Atalanta U23
12 Sept
Pineto
2 : 1
Sambenedettese
06 Sept
Sambenedettese
1 : 2
Spezia
Page 1 of 6

Perugia

(Away)
27 Sept
Perugia
1 : 0
Reggiana
20 Sept
Grosseto
2 : 0
Perugia
16 Sept
Perugia
0 : 3
Spezia
13 Sept
Ravenna
3 : 0
Perugia
06 Sept
Perugia
2 : 1
Pineto
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arezzo 36 24 8 4 64:24 80
2 Ascoli 36 23 8 5 63:23 77
3 Ravenna 36 22 7 7 50:30 73
4 Campobasso 36 17 10 9 49:37 59
5 Juventus U23 36 14 11 11 46:43 53
6 Pianese 36 11 17 8 37:34 50
7 Pineto 36 13 11 12 42:45 50
8 Gubbio 36 11 15 10 31:32 48
9 Ternana 36 14 11 11 44:40 48
10 Vis Pesaro 36 11 13 12 38:36 46
11 Livorno 36 12 7 17 39:51 43
12 Forli FC 36 10 10 16 41:52 40
13 Carpi 36 10 10 16 35:48 40
14 Perugia 36 8 14 14 38:44 38
15 Guidonia 1937 36 8 14 14 30:36 38
16 Sambenedettese 36 8 13 15 30:37 37
17 Sassari Torres 36 6 18 12 32:45 36
18 Bra 36 6 14 16 37:54 32
19 US Pontedera 36 3 11 22 27:62 20
20 Rimini 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie B (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)