Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Samoa vs American Samoa

World World

World Cup 2018
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Faaiuaso D.
7'
Hall J.
18' Event
Hamilton-Pama F.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-2, with Samoa advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Samoa
11%
Draws
9%
American Samoa
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Samoa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Samoa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Samoa's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Samoa have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Samoa, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Samoa here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Samoa Clean Sheet 18%
American Samoa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Samoa American Samoa
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 13 4
Draws 1 2
Losses 18 24
Goals Scored 2.5 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.88 5.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 5.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2024 World Championship
American Samoa vs Samoa
0:2
Nov 20, 2023 Pacific Games
American Samoa vs Samoa
0:10
Aug 31, 2015 World Championship
Samoa vs American Samoa
3:2
Nov 27, 2011 World Championship
Samoa vs American Samoa
1:0
Aug 28, 2007 World Championship
American Samoa vs Samoa
0:7

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Samoa Compare

Top Goalscorer Faaiuaso D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hamilton-Pama F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

American Samoa Compare

Top Goalscorer Beauchamp F.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Samoa 76 / 100
American Samoa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Samoa American Samoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

American Samoa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 97% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: American Samoa has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Samoa scored in 53% of their last 32 outings.

Scoring Trends

Samoa VS American Samoa
2.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.88 Goals Conceded 5.63
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Samoa

(Home)
18 Nov
Samoa
0 : 8
New Zealand
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3
Tahiti
12 Oct
Vanuatu
4 : 1
Samoa
09 Sept
Tonga
1 : 2
Samoa
06 Sept
American Samoa
0 : 2
Samoa
Page 1 of 7

American Samoa

(Away)
28 Mar
American Samoa
0 : 6
Guam
25 Mar
United States Virgin Islands
5 : 2
American Samoa
08 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 2
American Samoa
06 Sept
American Samoa
0 : 2
Samoa
29 Nov
American Samoa
2 : 6
Tonga
Page 1 of 6