Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Samoa vs Fiji

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Nations Cup HFC Bank Stadium, Suva
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Hughes S.
21'
Raheem M.
23'
Wara S.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-9. This leg finished 1-9.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Samoa
20%
Draws
36%
Fiji
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Samoa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Samoa lately — more wins on the board than Fiji.
  • Model gives Fiji a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Samoa have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Fiji, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Fiji here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Samoa Clean Sheet 10%
Fiji Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Samoa Fiji
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 10
Draws 1 8
Losses 18 12
Goals Scored 1.37 1.5
Goals Conceded 3.47 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 4.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 19, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
Samoa vs Fiji
1:9
Aug 18, 2011 Friendly International
Fiji vs Samoa
5:1
Aug 17, 2011 Friendly International
Fiji vs Samoa
3:0
May 18, 2004 World Championship
Samoa vs Fiji
0:4
Apr 11, 2001 World Championship
Samoa vs Fiji
1:6

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Samoa Compare

Top Goalscorer Salisbury L. L. M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Fiji Compare

Top Goalscorer Hughes S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Dogalau E.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 3.64
Avg xA / game 2.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Samoa 10 / 100
Fiji 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Samoa Fiji

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fiji Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 6.00 goals per match.

Fiji let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Samoa scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Samoa remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Samoa VS Fiji
0 Goals Scored 1.13
8 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 50%
100% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Samoa

(Home)
18 Nov
Samoa
0 : 8
New Zealand
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3
Tahiti
12 Oct
Vanuatu
4 : 1
Samoa
09 Sept
Tonga
1 : 2
Samoa
06 Sept
American Samoa
0 : 2
Samoa
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Fiji

(Away)
27 Sept
Fiji
2 : 0
Papua New Guinea
21 Sept
Fiji
0 : 1
Vanuatu
18 Sept
Fiji
3 : 3
Solomon Islands
09 Jun
Vanuatu
2 : 2
Fiji
06 Jun
Vanuatu
2 : 1
Fiji
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Zealand 2 2 0 0 7:0 6
2 Vanuatu 2 1 0 1 1:4 3
3 Solomon Islands 2 0 0 2 0:4 0
4 New Caledonia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Fiji 3 3 0 0 15:2 9
2 Tahiti 3 1 1 1 3:2 4
3 Papua New Guinea 3 1 1 1 4:7 4
4 Samoa 3 0 0 3 2:13 0
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup (Play Offs)