Sport Picks
Samoa vs Papua New Guinea
Australia & Oceania
OFC Nations Cup HFC Bank Stadium, Suva 
Match Events
28'
28'
Semmy T.
34'
34'
Salisbury L. L. M.
41'
41'
Simon E.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-2. The second leg ended 1-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
15%
57%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Papua New Guinea
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Papua New Guinea come out ahead of Samoa on wins alone.
- Papua New Guinea are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Papua New Guinea arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Papua New Guinea, who have won 3 of the last 4 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Papua New Guinea here — 4 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 40.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Samoa Clean Sheet 10%
Papua New Guinea Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Samoa | Papua New Guinea |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 33 |
| Wins | 13 | 15 |
| Draws | 1 | 6 |
| Losses | 18 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.63 | 2.12 |
| Goals Conceded | 3.25 | 1.61 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 2.62 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 22, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
Samoa vs Papua New Guinea
1:2
Jul 8, 2019 Pacific Games
Samoa vs Papua New Guinea
0:6
Jun 5, 2016 World Championship
Papua New Guinea vs Samoa
8:0
May 20, 2004 World Championship
Samoa vs Papua New Guinea
1:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Samoa Compare
Top Goalscorer Trainor P.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Papua New Guinea Compare
Top Goalscorer Semmy T.
1 Goals Assists Leader Kepo A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.38
Avg xA / game 1.46
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Samoa 10 / 100
Papua New Guinea 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Samoa Papua New Guinea
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Papua New Guinea Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 5.50 goals.
Papua New Guinea let in goals in 64% of their last 33 matches.
Samoa found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (32 games).
Samoa went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Samoa VS Papua New Guinea
1 Goals Scored 1.38
3.86 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 88%
86% Over 2.5 63%
43% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Samoa
(Home) 18 Nov
Samoa
0 : 8 New Zealand
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3 Tahiti
12 Oct
Vanuatu
4 : 1 Samoa
09 Sept
Tonga
1 : 2 Samoa
06 Sept
American Samoa
0 : 2 Samoa
Page 1 of 7
18 Nov
Samoa
0 : 8 New Zealand
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3 Tahiti
22 Jun
Samoa
1 : 2 Papua New Guinea
19 Jun
Samoa
1 : 9 Fiji
22 Mar
Samoa
1 : 0 Cook Islands
Page 1 of 3
Papua New Guinea
(Away) 23 Nov
Papua New Guinea
2 : 3 Vanuatu
20 Nov
Papua New Guinea
2 : 0 Fiji
13 Nov
Papua New Guinea
1 : 0 Solomon Islands
21 Dec
Vanuatu
1 : 2 Papua New Guinea
18 Dec
Solomon Islands
2 : 3 Papua New Guinea
Page 1 of 7
21 Dec
Vanuatu
1 : 2 Papua New Guinea
18 Dec
Solomon Islands
2 : 3 Papua New Guinea
09 Dec
Solomon Islands U23
0 : 1 Papua New Guinea
10 Oct
New Caledonia
3 : 1 Papua New Guinea
22 Jun
Samoa
1 : 2 Papua New Guinea
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:0 | 6 |
| 2 | Vanuatu | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:4 | 3 |
| 3 | Solomon Islands | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:4 | 0 |
| 4 | New Caledonia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fiji | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Tahiti | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 3 | Papua New Guinea | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 4 | Samoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:13 | 0 |
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup (Play Offs)
