Sport Picks
Samoa W vs New Caledonia W Prediction & H2H Stats
Australia & Oceania
OFC Nations Cup Women 2022 ANZ National Stadium, Suva 
Match Events
36'
36'
Fischer M.
45'
45'
Uregei S.
51'
51'
Stewart J.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 4-2, with Samoa W advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
85%
15%
0%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Samoa W
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Samoa W come out ahead of New Caledonia W on wins alone.
- 85% — that's where the model lands on Samoa W taking it.
- Samoa W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor New Caledonia W, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Samoa W Clean Sheet 18%
New Caledonia W Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Samoa W | New Caledonia W |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 15 | 8 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 14 | 18 |
| Goals Scored | 1.55 | 1.86 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.94 | 2.83 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.00 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Dec 1, 2023 Pacific Games Women
Samoa W vs New Caledonia W
1:3
Jul 23, 2022 OFC Nations Cup Women
Samoa W vs New Caledonia W
4:2
Jul 18, 2019 Pacific Games Women
New Caledonia W vs Samoa W
2:3
Nov 24, 2018 OFC Nations Cup Women
New Caledonia W vs Samoa W
2:0
Jul 8, 2015 Pacific Games Women
New Caledonia W vs Samoa W
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Samoa W Compare
Top Goalscorer Stewart J.
3 Goals Assists Leader Fischer M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1
New Caledonia W Compare
Top Goalscorer Uregei S.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Samoa W 85 / 100
New Caledonia W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Samoa W New Caledonia W
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Samoa W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: New Caledonia W conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.
These sides typically produce 4.20 goals when they meet.
Away concern: New Caledonia W has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.
Samoa W scored in 74% of their last 31 games.
Scoring Trends
Samoa W VS New Caledonia W
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
2 Goals Conceded 2.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Samoa W
(Home) 05 Mar
Samoa W
2 : 1 Solomon Islands W
02 Mar
American Samoa W
1 : 0 Samoa W
27 Feb
New Zealand W
8 : 0 Samoa W
19 Jul
Fiji W
0 : 2 Samoa W
16 Jul
Solomon Islands W
2 : 1 Samoa W
Page 1 of 7
05 Mar
Samoa W
2 : 1 Solomon Islands W
10 Jul
Samoa W
3 : 1 Tahiti W
07 Feb
Samoa W
1 : 0 Vanuatu W
01 Dec
Samoa W
1 : 3 New Caledonia W
24 Nov
Samoa W
4 : 1 Tonga W
Page 1 of 3
New Caledonia W
(Away) 29 Sept
Fiji W
1 : 0 New Caledonia W
26 Sept
New Caledonia W
0 : 1 Solomon Islands W
23 Sept
Vanuatu W
5 : 0 New Caledonia W
20 Sept
New Caledonia W
1 : 4 Papua New Guinea W
15 Apr
Indonesia W
4 : 2 New Caledonia W
Page 1 of 6
29 Sept
Fiji W
1 : 0 New Caledonia W
23 Sept
Vanuatu W
5 : 0 New Caledonia W
15 Apr
Indonesia W
4 : 2 New Caledonia W
12 Apr
Thailand W
4 : 0 New Caledonia W
27 Feb
Fiji W
5 : 0 New Caledonia W
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
Quarter-finals
Samoa W 4
New Caledonia W 2
Papua New Guinea W 4
Tonga W 3
Fiji W 2
Cook Islands W 0
Tahiti W 0
Solomon Islands W 1
Semi-finals
Samoa W 0
Papua New Guinea W 3
Fiji W 3
Solomon Islands W 1
Final
Papua New Guinea W 2
Fiji W 1
Samoa W 1
Solomon Islands W 2
