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Samoa W vs Tonga W

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Nations Cup Women 2022
Samoa W Logo

Samoa W

2 - 0
FT
Tonga W Logo

Tonga W

Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Fischer M.
70' Event
Stewart J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Samoa W in this OFC Nations Cup Women 2022 tie, finishing 2-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Samoa W
15%
Draws
42%
Tonga W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Samoa W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Samoa W have won more games recently than Tonga W.
  • Model gives Samoa W a 43% chance of winning this.
  • Samoa W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Samoa W, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Samoa W have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
Samoa W Clean Sheet 20%
Tonga W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Samoa W Tonga W
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 15 8
Draws 2 2
Losses 14 20
Goals Scored 1.55 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.94 3.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 13, 2024 Olympic Games Women
Tonga W vs Samoa W
0:2
Nov 24, 2023 Pacific Games Women
Samoa W vs Tonga W
4:1
Jul 13, 2022 OFC Nations Cup Women
Samoa W vs Tonga W
2:0
Jul 8, 2019 Pacific Games Women
Samoa W vs Tonga W
5:0
Jul 6, 2015 Pacific Games Women
Tonga W vs Samoa W
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Samoa W Compare

Top Goalscorer Fischer M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Stewart J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Tonga W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Samoa W 67 / 100
Tonga W 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Samoa W Tonga W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Samoa W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tonga W has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Samoa W found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Tonga W lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Samoa W VS Tonga W
1.38 Goals Scored 0.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Samoa W

(Home)
05 Mar
Samoa W
2 : 1
Solomon Islands W
02 Mar
American Samoa W
1 : 0
Samoa W
27 Feb
New Zealand W
8 : 0
Samoa W
19 Jul
Fiji W
0 : 2
Samoa W
16 Jul
Solomon Islands W
2 : 1
Samoa W
Page 1 of 7

Tonga W

(Away)
02 Dec
Tonga W
4 : 1
Tahiti W
28 Nov
Tonga W
0 : 3
American Samoa W
14 Jul
Cook Islands W
0 : 1
Tonga W
11 Jul
Solomon Islands W
5 : 0
Tonga W
08 Jul
Fiji W
3 : 0
Tonga W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Samoa W 2 2 0 0 3:0 6
2 Cook Islands W 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
3 Tonga W 2 0 1 1 1:3 1
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup Women 2022 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Papua New Guinea W 2 2 0 0 5:2 6
2 Tahiti W 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
3 Vanuatu W 2 0 1 1 1:3 1
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup Women 2022 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Fiji W 2 1 1 0 4:2 4
2 Solomon Islands W 2 0 2 0 3:3 2
3 New Caledonia W 2 0 1 1 3:5 1
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup Women 2022 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams