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Sampaio Correa FE vs CEAC/Araruama

Brazil Brazil

Copa Rio 2025 Estadio Lourival Gomes
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Romulo
(Penalty)
40' Event
Rodrigo A. P.
45' Event
Nunes M. S.

AI Match Summary

CEAC/Araruama in this Copa Rio 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored CEAC/Araruama.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Sampaio Correa FE
40%
Draws
29%
CEAC/Araruama
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to CEAC/Araruama lately — more wins on the board than Sampaio Correa FE.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Sampaio Correa FE Clean Sheet 20%
CEAC/Araruama Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sampaio Correa FE CEAC/Araruama
Matches Played 31 27
Wins 9 10
Draws 9 8
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 0.63 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 20, 2025 Copa Rio
Sampaio Correa FE vs CEAC/Araruama
1:3
Aug 13, 2025 Copa Rio
CEAC/Araruama vs Sampaio Correa FE
0:0
May 13, 2023 Carioca 2
CEAC/Araruama vs Sampaio Correa FE
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sampaio Correa FE Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

CEAC/Araruama Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigo A. P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nunes M. S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sampaio Correa FE 32 / 100
CEAC/Araruama 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sampaio Correa FE CEAC/Araruama

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sampaio Correa FE scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

CEAC/Araruama let in goals in 63% of their last 27 matches.

Recent resilience: Sampaio Correa FE stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Games between these two average 1.33 goals.

Scoring Trends

Sampaio Correa FE VS CEAC/Araruama
0.63 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
38% Over 1.5 38%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
CEAC/Araruama3
Sampaio Correa FE1
Olaria0
Nova Iguacu1
Cabofriense2
Boavista1
America RJ2
Audax RJ0
Goncalense0
Marica3
Duque de Caxias1
Madureira2
Campo Grande0
Bangu3
Resende2
Portuguesa RJ3
Quarter-finals
CEAC/Araruama3
Nova Iguacu2
Cabofriense2
America RJ5
Marica6
Madureira1
Bangu0
Portuguesa RJ1
Semi-finals
CEAC/Araruama0
America RJ1
Marica1
Portuguesa RJ3
Final
America RJ1
Portuguesa RJ2