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Sampaio Correa vs Maranhao Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Maranhense Estádio Governador João Castelo, São Luís
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Will
39' Event
Peu C.
45' Event
Joelson

AI Match Summary

Sampaio Correa in this Maranhense matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sampaio Correa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Sampaio Correa
15%
Draws
45%
Maranhao
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Maranhao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Maranhao have won more games recently than Sampaio Correa.
  • Sampaio Correa are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 54%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Sampaio Correa Clean Sheet 68%
Maranhao Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sampaio Correa Maranhao
Matches Played 34 43
Wins 13 16
Draws 14 9
Losses 7 18
Goals Scored 1.44 1.05
Goals Conceded 0.82 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.40 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2026 Maranhense
Maranhao vs Sampaio Correa
0:2
Feb 7, 2026 Maranhense
Sampaio Correa vs Maranhao
0:3
Jan 18, 2026 Maranhense
Sampaio Correa vs Maranhao
4:2
Jun 28, 2025 Serie D
Maranhao vs Sampaio Correa
2:0
May 21, 2025 Serie D
Sampaio Correa vs Maranhao
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sampaio Correa Compare

Top Goalscorer Peu C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Daniel Mazerochi
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.7

Maranhao Compare

Top Goalscorer Will
1 Goals
Assists Leader Joelson
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sampaio Correa 50 / 100
Maranhao 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sampaio Correa Maranhao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sampaio Correa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sampaio Correa's goal record stands at 65% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Maranhao let in goals in 67% of their last 43 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Sampaio Correa remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sampaio Correa VS Maranhao
2.17 Goals Scored 0.5
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
83% Over 1.5 25%
67% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sampaio Correa

(Home)
27 Jun
Trem
1 : 2
Sampaio Correa
21 Jun
Sampaio Correa
0 : 2
Trem
07 Jun
Sampaio Correa
0 : 1
Iguatu
31 May
IAPE
1 : 3
Sampaio Correa
24 May
Sampaio Correa
4 : 0
Moto Club
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Maranhao

(Away)
29 Aug
Figueirense
2 : 1
Maranhao
23 Aug
Maranhao
4 : 1
Itabaiana
15 Aug
Santa Cruz
0 : 1
Maranhao
09 Aug
Maranhao
2 : 1
Brusque
25 Jul
Ferroviaria
0 : 0
Maranhao
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Moto Club 7 3 4 0 10:4 13
2 Maranhao 7 4 1 2 9:7 13
3 Sampaio Correa 7 2 5 0 13:5 11
4 IAPE 7 3 2 2 4:3 11
5 Luminense 7 3 1 3 6:6 10
6 Tuntum 7 2 3 2 8:9 9
7 Imperatriz 7 1 3 3 2:5 6
8 ITZ Sport 7 0 1 6 1:14 1
Promotion - Maranhense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Maranhense (Relegation)
Relegation - Maranhense 2 2027 (Main)