Sport Picks
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Foligno Prediction & H2H Stats
Italy
Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 
Match Events
90'
90'
Ciravegna B.
AI Match Summary
San Donato Tavarnelle in this Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored San Donato Tavarnelle.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
20%
47%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Foligno
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Foligno lately — more wins on the board than San Donato Tavarnelle.
- San Donato Tavarnelle are the model's pick here, at 42%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors San Donato Tavarnelle here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
San Donato Tavarnelle Clean Sheet 20%
Foligno Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | San Donato Tavarnelle | Foligno |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 7 | 11 |
| Draws | 10 | 8 |
| Losses | 12 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.93 | 1.17 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 19, 2026 Serie D - Group E
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Foligno
1:0
Dec 7, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Foligno vs San Donato Tavarnelle
1:1
Mar 26, 2022 Serie D - Group E
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Foligno
5:0
Nov 7, 2021 Serie D - Group E
Foligno vs San Donato Tavarnelle
0:4
Apr 1, 2021 Serie D - Group E
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Foligno
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
San Donato Tavarnelle Compare
Top Goalscorer Ciravegna B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Foligno Compare
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
San Donato Tavarnelle 42 / 100
Foligno 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
San Donato Tavarnelle Foligno
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
San Donato Tavarnelle found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).
Defensive concern: Foligno conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Solid form: San Donato Tavarnelle remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
San Donato Tavarnelle VS Foligno
1.63 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
San Donato Tavarnelle
(Home) 27 Sept
Flaminia
2 : 1 San Donato Tavarnelle
20 Sept
San Donato Tavarnelle
0 : 2 Follonica Gavorrano
16 Sept
Terranuova Traiana
1 : 1 San Donato Tavarnelle
13 Sept
Sasso Marconi
1 : 3 San Donato Tavarnelle
06 Sept
San Donato Tavarnelle
2 : 1 Seravezza Pozzi
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
San Donato Tavarnelle
0 : 2 Follonica Gavorrano
06 Sept
San Donato Tavarnelle
2 : 1 Seravezza Pozzi
23 Aug
San Donato Tavarnelle
1 : 1 Siena
05 Aug
San Donato Tavarnelle
1 : 2 Scandicci
03 May
San Donato Tavarnelle
1 : 1 Seravezza Pozzi
Page 1 of 3
Foligno
(Away) 27 Sept
Montecchio Gallo
1 : 1 Foligno
20 Sept
Foligno
1 : 0 Notaresco Calcio
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1 Foligno
12 Sept
Pietralunga
0 : 1 Foligno
06 Sept
Foligno
2 : 1 Lanciano FC
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Montecchio Gallo
1 : 1 Foligno
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1 Foligno
12 Sept
Pietralunga
0 : 1 Foligno
26 Apr
Seravezza Pozzi
0 : 0 Foligno
19 Apr
San Donato Tavarnelle
1 : 0 Foligno
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosseto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 58:25 | 72 |
| 2 | Tau | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 53:33 | 63 |
| 3 | Prato | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 49:29 | 63 |
| 4 | Siena | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 57:35 | 60 |
| 5 | Seravezza Pozzi | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 42:29 | 57 |
| 6 | Terranuova Traiana | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 28:30 | 51 |
| 7 | Foligno | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 45:37 | 51 |
| 8 | Scandicci | 34 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 39:32 | 48 |
| 9 | Montevarchi | 34 | 10 | 16 | 8 | 28:32 | 46 |
| 10 | Sporting Trestina | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 40:42 | 42 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 30:35 | 40 |
| 12 | Ghiviborgo | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42:44 | 40 |
| 13 | Orvietana | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 33:37 | 38 |
| 14 | Follonica Gavorrano | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36:49 | 37 |
| 15 | Camaiore Calcio | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 41:54 | 35 |
| 16 | Poggibonsi | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 29:46 | 31 |
| 17 | Cannara | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 24:59 | 26 |
| 18 | Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro | 34 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 20:46 | 22 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Out)
